Pages

Jump to bottom

8 comments

1 freetoken  Sun, Oct 30, 2011 6:37:38pm

Yeah, HotWingnuts ran this story today with saliva drooling.

Look, 200 years after geologists gave good evidence of a very old Earth we still have a substantial number of people who believe the universe was created ex nihilo 6000 years ago. If someone wants to hold onto their beliefs, no matter how ignorant, there is little that can be done to dissuade them.

2 freetoken  Sun, Oct 30, 2011 6:40:24pm

Oh, and obviously the title needs editing.

And, Curry has a very long history of sowing confusion about climate.

3 RanchTooth  Sun, Oct 30, 2011 6:52:51pm

re: #2 freetoken

Thanks for catching that silly error... =P

I don't think Curry is inciting confusion about climate change, not in this case. She readily admits, as does Muller, that there's something going on in the temperature data within the past 10-13 years. This doesn't indicate that atmospheric conditions can't change in other ways as a result of increased CO2 emission.

There's the other obvious argument that, well, it's only a 10-year period, how can you possibly draw any conclusions from it? The y-scale is so horrid on that bottom graph, that you can't say for sure what the trend is. At the first point, the y-value (change from 1950-1980 avg temp) is about +0.75. Looking at the continuation of points after that, I would say that a majority of them are above the value of +0.75, with the last data point falling at about +1.125 (I assumed it was halfway between 1.5 and 0.75). That would be an increase, it may be too small of a sample to see the "hockey stick effect" that we are all accustomed to seeing in AGW graphs (i.e. the one above it), but I think drawing any sort of conclusions from that graph is faulty. You could probably do this same analysis with any 10-year period and get the same result. It is too small of a sample to draw anything meaningful from.

4 freetoken  Sun, Oct 30, 2011 7:01:51pm
You see an anomaly and you try to explain it. It does NOT discredit the theory of AGW (as global temperature averages have certainly increased), but the causation may have changed over time after a threshold amount of CO2. The article, which I have yet to read, cites possible additional causes such as solar radiation, cloud formation, and natural temperature cycles, something that their work has included.

Um, no.

But, I suppose more than a two word answer is needed here.

First, the problem in this latest news cycle with the BEST work is that the talking point has become Global Warming = the surface temperature record. That's way too narrow of a view of what is really happening on the Earth's surface, and as I've mentioned before simply taking the surface temperature record isn't even the best way to understand what is really going on (for which one really needs to delve into the energy flow from the surface into space, and realize that changes are taking place from the mid ocean depths up through the stratosphere.)

Even then, taking a surface temperature record including the polar regions (which the UK MET office does not!) does show surface temperature rising over the past 10 years.

As for "causes" - they are the same as stated before, and have been known (generally, and in many cases specifically) for many years and continue to be re-examined in more detail. The least well understood appears to be cloud formation. One of the best understood is the "greenhouse" effect of gases in the atmosphere. Ocean heat transport is something that is also understood in general but has many details in the specifics that are being investigated. The affects of the biosphere also comes into play. In this latter case human transformation of the landscape is of particular importance. And, as for incoming solar radiation - it too has been well studied.

Overturning of the ocean (via currents), biosphere changes, aerosols, and the solar (psuedo-)cycle are more than enough to account for the year to year variations. Indeed, it was only about two years ago scientific papers showed up warning about a few years of North Atlantic ocean heat absorption (thus leading to less surface temp warming) around the early 2010's (I think Susan Solomon was involved in some of this - you can Google her name for more details.)

Variations from year to year in the surface temp record, and even within a whole decade, are to be expected from a system as large and complex as the Earth's surface.

Judith Curry doesn't want to give up the spotlight, and Muller seems content with the idea that he's made his splash (see his books). That's what is going on here.

5 RanchTooth  Sun, Oct 30, 2011 7:23:05pm

re: #4 freetoken

My poorly worded phrase came back to bite me. What I meant to say is essentially what you've just said. Not causation, but the effects. I simply wanted to analyze the fallacies in the arguments of DM, etc.

6 Amory Blaine  Sun, Oct 30, 2011 7:41:15pm

Climate change will now only happen during certain administrations.

That is all.

7 Interesting Times  Sun, Oct 30, 2011 8:04:14pm
Prof Ross McKittrick, a climate statistics expert from Guelph University in Ontario

Two things:

1) It's "University of Guelph", not "Guelph University".

2) McKittrick isn't a "climate statistics expert" by any stretch of the imagination. He's a Koch-worshipping Fraser Institute AGW denier whose field is economics, not climate science.

No wonder they call it the Daily Fail 9_9

8 RogueOne  Mon, Oct 31, 2011 3:29:33am

re: #3 RanchTooth

.......
There's the other obvious argument that, well, it's only a 10-year period, how can you possibly draw any conclusions from it?........

Related:

Provoked scientists try to explain lag in global warming
[Link: www.eenews.net...]

"If you look at the last decade of global temperature, it's not increasing," Barnes said. "There's a lot of scatter to it. But the [climate] models go up. And that has to be explained. Why didn't we warm up?"

The question itself, while simple sounding, is loaded. By any measure, the decade from 2000 to 2010 was the warmest in modern history. However, 1998 remains the single warmest year on record, though by some accounts last year tied its heat. Temperatures following 1998 stayed relatively flat for 10 years, with the heat in 2008 about equaling temperatures at the decade's start. The warming, as scientists say, went on "hiatus."

The hiatus was not unexpected. Variability in the climate can suppress rising temperatures temporarily, though before this decade scientists were uncertain how long such pauses could last. In any case, one decade is not long enough to say anything about human effects on climate; as one forthcoming paper lays out, 17 years is required.

For some scientists, chalking the hiatus up to the planet's natural variability was enough. Temperatures would soon rise again, driven up inexorably by the ever-thickening blanket thrown on the atmosphere by greenhouse gases. People would forget about it.

But for others, this simple answer was a failure. If scientists were going to attribute the stall to natural variability, they faced a burden to explain, in a precise way, how this variation worked. Without evidence, their statements were no better than the unsubstantiated theories circulated by climate skeptics on the Internet.


This page has been archived.
Comments are closed.

Jump to top

Create a PageThis is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.
Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.
Last updated: 2016-01-01 10:29 am PST
LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds Tweet

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!Register and sign in to a free LGF account before subscribing, and your ad-free access will be automatically enabled.

Donate with
PayPal
Square Cash Shop at amazon
as an LGF Associate!
Recent PagesClick to refresh
“Did You Even READ the Piece?” This Startup Wants to Make That Question Obsolete for Commentors Let’s be honest: Are you going to read this or skim this? In a land of feeds, tidbits, and bullet points, readers don’t often get to the end of a piece — let alone absorb each sentence along the ...
Thanos
2 days, 9 hours ago
Views: 175 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Young the Giant: Simplify (Official Audio) Young The Giant's official audio for their new single 'Simplify' - available now. Download / Stream 'Simplify': lnk.to Catch Young The Giant on Tour this fall with very special guest Lights!More info at: youngthegiant.com Site: youngthegiant.comFacebook: facebook.comTwitter: @youngthegiantInstagram: instagram.comYouTube: ...
Thanos
3 days, 19 hours ago
Views: 187 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Traveller - ‘Nobody Makes It Out’ (Live at WFUV)wfuv.org • Follow @wfuv: ow.ly Traveller performs "Nobody Makes It Out" live in Studio A. Recorded 5.9.18. Host: Alisa AliAudio: Caroline InzucchiCameras: Kristal Ho, Brian Gallagher & Kaylee KurkierewiczEditors: Kaylee Kurkierewicz & Brian Gallagher
Thanos
3 days, 19 hours ago
Views: 201 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Fantastic Negrito - the Duffler (Official Video) ‘The Duffler’ is taken from Fantastic Negrito's brand new album 'Please Don't Be Dead' out now. Order your copy here: fn.lnk.to Director: Freddy Macdonald Producer: Fred MacdonaldCinematographer: Sebastian KlingerEditor: Freddy MacdonaldProduction Company: Macdonald Entertainment Partners Check here for Fantastic ...
Thanos
3 days, 19 hours ago
Views: 160 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Facebook’s Screening for Political Ads Nabs News Sites… One ad couldn’t have been more obviously political. Targeted to people aged 18 and older, it urged them to “vote YES” on June 5 on a ballot proposition to issue bonds for schools in a district near San Francisco. ...
Thanos
5 days, 10 hours ago
Views: 227 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 13 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Stanford Prison Experiment: Why Famous Psychology Studies Are Now Being Torn Apart Sometimes pseudoscience makes it through to the text books, most often in the soft and social sciences. A new exposé based on previously unpublished recordings of Philip Zimbardo, the Stanford psychologist who ran the study, and interviews with his ...
Thanos
1 week ago
Views: 559 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 3
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Goliath Season 2 - Official Trailer In Season 2 of Goliath, Billy McBride takes on a new case, and the fight spills into the streets of Los Angeles and alleys of Venice Beach.Goliath returns 6/15 on Prime Video. » Stream Goliath 6/15 on Prime Video: ...
Thanos
1 week ago
Views: 486 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Wild Nothing - Letting Go "Letting Go" is the first single from Wild Nothing's forthcoming album, 'Indigo', out 08/31/2018 on Captured Tracks. Order here: wildnothing.lnk.to Follow Wild Nothing:wildnothingmusic.comwildnothingct.bandcamp.comfacebook.cominstagram.com@WildNothingopen.spotify.com Lyrics:It's getting hard for me to reframe all those shifting memoriesLike a music box that never ...
Thanos
2 weeks ago
Views: 658 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Third Circuit Nominee Tries to Walk Back Past Comments, Writing Porter appeared before the Judiciary Committee Wednesday despite not receiving the approval of Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa. Under the tradition known as the blue slip, the committee has in the past declined to schedule hearings for nominees who do ...
Thanos
2 weeks ago
Views: 676 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 5 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Wrongfully Influencing a Private Entity’s Employment Decisions by The Executive When Donald Trump makes pro administration or pro republican, or anti democratic party demands, he is breaking the law. I invite those with some familiarity with how this is actually supposed to work to chime in. (a) Whoever, being ...
Unshaken Defiance
2 weeks, 6 days ago
Views: 863 • Comments: 1 • Rating: 9
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0