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1 freetoken  Wed, Nov 2, 2011 7:11:01pm

I’m not sure the Telegraph headline is an accurate summary of what is going on. The Greek referendum is turning out to be a vote on whether Greece ought to remain in the Euro-zone, so if that is how it finally turns out, and the Greeks vote to leave the Euro-zone, the previous agreements will have been OBE anyway.

Given the Telegraph’s history of antipathy towards the Euro (and all of the European integration program) I suspect they want to cast the European Union as the big bad centralized authoritarian power, when in reality what is coming to a head is simply the Greeks’ lackadaisical approach to their fiscal policy.

2 researchok  Wed, Nov 2, 2011 7:14:00pm

Round 1

Let’s see what happens to Spain, Italy, etc., if Europe abandons Greece.

3 Bob Dillon  Wed, Nov 2, 2011 8:16:28pm

re: #2 researchok

Italy? ….. about to become another anchor on the way to the bottom - with or without a rescue of Greece.

[Link: blogs.wsj.com…]

NOVEMBER 1, 2011, 9:29 AM ET
Italian Bond Yields Flash Warning Signal
By Mark Gongloff

An early-warning indicator of yesterday’s market meltdown was Italian sovereign debt, which last week kept falling in price, and rising in yield, even as the Plan to Save the World goosed stock markets temporarily higher.

Italian bonds were trying to tell us something then, and maybe they’re trying to tell us something again today.

Ten-year Italian debt yields crossed 6% yesterday, into the danger zone between 6% and 7%, beyond which it will get really hard for Italy to service its debt.

They’re higher still today,with 10-year Italian bonds yielding 6.3% at last check, and about 45 basis points wider against relatively safe German bunds.

Maybe more troubling, shorter-dated yields are in some cases rising even harder, in effect starting to “flatten” the yield curve, always a sign of trouble ahead.

Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors writes:

Italian 5 year bond yields hit 6.24% that is 37 bps higher on the day. The spread to bunds moved 56 bps. 10 year Italy “only” yields 6.32% – that is getting scary flat. The front end isn’t as flat, but 2 year Italian yields spiked to 5.5% (55 bps on the day).

If Thursday didn’t teach us that you can’t let price action tell you whether a “grand plan” is good or not, I would watch this very carefully. Yield curve flattening is a big deal and a critical step in the deterioration of the credit worthiness of an entity (the 1st lost from the EFSF may be gaining in value, but who wants the more and more likely 2nd loss?)

4 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Nov 2, 2011 8:44:31pm

re: #1 freetoken

I’m not sure the Telegraph headline is an accurate summary of what is going on. The Greek referendum is turning out to be a vote on whether Greece ought to remain in the Euro-zone, so if that is how it finally turns out, and the Greeks vote to leave the Euro-zone, the previous agreements will have been OBE anyway.

Given the Telegraph’s history of antipathy towards the Euro (and all of the European integration program) I suspect they want to cast the European Union as the big bad centralized authoritarian power, when in reality what is coming to a head is simply the Greeks’ lackadaisical approach to their fiscal policy.

The telegraph’s antipathy is well deserved, as I now believe more than ever the UK made the right decision in not adopting the Euro. And honestly, I hope great Britain leaves the EU entirely before this is over.


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