Next steps in doubt when Arab mission in Syria ends
After weeks of observing bloodshed in Syria armed with nothing but pens, Arab League monitors will report on Friday that Damascus has failed to fully implement a peace plan. Now what?
In the short-term, the League will have to decide on the fate of its monitoring mission, whose mandate expires on Thursday. It can either be scrapped, extended or possibly beefed up to include more observers and even an armed element.
In the longer term, Arab states will have to decide what sort of punishment they are prepared to inflict on Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad for failing to halt 10 months of violence.
Qatar has proposed sending in Arab troops, in what would be one of the boldest moves ever taken by the 67-year-old Arab League. But Arab League sources say it could be difficult to rally support for such a move, which would face resistance from Arab rulers allied to Damascus or worried about unrest at home.
If the League cannot agree action on its own, Arab states will be under increasing pressure to give their blessing to wider international measures. But the West has so far shown no stomach for the sort of intervention it mustered last year to help topple Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi.
The first decision Arab leaders will have to take is whether to extend the monitoring mission’s mandate beyond Thursday.
The mission’s critics say its month-long investigation has made the situation in Syria worse by doing little to halt violence while buying the government of President Bashar al-Assad more time to continue a crackdown on opponents.
At least three of the monitors have reported humanitarian suffering taking place in Syria, with the observers unable to do anything to stop it.
In that light, some countries will be reluctant to extend the mission in its present form, said a delegate to the Cairo-based League from one Arab state.
But others believe the monitors have done some good, and will oppose withdrawing them, he said.
“The third scenario will be to increase the number of monitors to 3,000 and include some security elements that have more ability to stop violent operations.”