Consensus of Polls Shows Romney Up in Florida
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com[]
¶You can find pretty much every species of poll in Florida right now.
¶There are traditional polls and automated polls, Internet polls and partisan polls, academic polls and commercial polls.
¶There are polls where voters checked a box. There are polls that were reported on Fox.
¶There are polls that called the voter’s house. There are polls where voters clicked a mouse.
¶Though the numbers were here and there, the outcome was the same everywhere.
¶Unless there is a major glitch, Mitt Romney will beat Newt Gingrich.
¶Sometimes, of course, the polls do get it wrong, even when they agree. Mr. Romney’s lead in the polls, now about 9 points in our forecast, is similar to the one that Hillary Rodham Clinton overcame against Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary in 2008. So it’s not quite safe to think of the outcome as preordained.