Since the beginning of the year, the level of violence has been ratcheted up significantly. Due to the increasing number of defections from Bashar al-Assad’s security forces, the fighting has intensified and Assad’s forces are using ever more brutal means to try and pacify and quell the protests and opposition groups.

However, it appears that Assad’s forces are being stretched thin and parts of Northern Syria are in open revolt against the regime and some areas are operating semi-autonomously from the regime which has lost control of the situation.

If the opposition groups can consolidate their efforts and gain legitimacy in the eyes of world diplomats, we might see the situation develop much as it did in Libya, where the opposition groups were able to become seen as the legitimate government and recognition proved key in approving the NATO mission there.

You know that things in Syria are bad when Secretary General Ban Ki Moon is warning that Assad’s forces are engaged in potential crimes against humanity and decries the wanton shelling of civilian areas and purposeful targeting of civilians in retaliation for protesting the regime. Yet, the Security Council is powerless to act as long as China and Russia continue their veto threat of any draft resolution that leaves the door open to Chapter 7 action (use of force).