nytimes.com

For now, said T. Michael Walkley, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity in Minneapolis, the iPhone lineup has momentum and Apple, based in Cupertino, Calif., should be able to pad its lead over rivals this year.

“But I cannot say with certainty that five years on, Apple will still be on top,” Mr. Walkley said, noting that Apple and HTC did not even make smartphones six years ago. “I assume they will be, but it is difficult to predict anything in this dynamic market.”

Also difficult to predict - whether smartphones will still exist in 5 years. One of the most inane things an analyst can do is attempt to predict the future of technology 5 years out. Unfortunately, that never stops them from coming to earth-shattering conclusions like this.