Setting the Rhythm, From Tehran: Iran Stands to Benefit Most From the Unrest of 2011
sigmundcarlandalfred.wordpress.com
Iran is facing a historic opportunity to shift the balance of power in the Persian Gulf region. This opportunity has little to do with Tehran’s nuclear program. Instead it involves Iran’s conventional military capability, its covert and overt political influence, and the decision of the United States to withdraw its military from Iraq.
For centuries, Iran has seen itself as deprived of its rightful position as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf, boxed in by the Ottomans, the British, and finally the Americans. In the absence of a global power, Turkey’s distance and Ankara’s reluctance to project force beyond its borders, Iran is left as a potential dominant conventional power in the Persian Gulf. The United States’ withdrawal from Iraq late last year thus paves the way for Iran to emerge as the region’s dominant land power.
This in no way means that Iran is about to invade someone; Tehran acts more subtly than that. Having force is more important than using it, particularly when that force is supplemented by political power. While it is not fair to say that Iran has turned Iraq into a satellite state in the wake of the United States’ departure, Tehran does wield substantial influence over the political process in Baghdad.
It is easy to understand why Iran would seek to build that influence. After a long and bitter war with Iraq in the 1980s, during which Iran suffered more than a million casualties, Tehran built its national security policy on ensuring that Iraq would never again pose a similar threat. Iranian involvement in Iraqi politics was therefore predictable. It took place while the United States was in Iraq, and has intensified since the United States left. Iran’s power and influence in Iraq extend an Iranian sphere of influence to the borders of a number of countries. Indeed, Iraq is the most strategic country in the region, bordering Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iran. Whoever holds sway in Iraq is in a position to influence the entire region, as the Americans knew.
The events in Syria compound the growth of Iranian power. The regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad has survived insurrection for a year, and Iran’s support in the form of supplies and training is one of the reasons. Should the Alawite regime survive, even without Assad at its helm, it will depend heavily on Iran. What had been a relationship between equals, where Syria kept its distance from Iran at times, will tilt massively toward Tehran. When we consider Iran’s influence over Hezbollah, with its substantial power in Lebanon, we can see the ongoing formation of an Iranian sphere of influence that stretches from western Afghanistan to the Mediterranean.
This would fundamentally shift the balance of power in the region. Iran would hold sway over an area that runs along the northern border of Saudi Arabia and abuts the southern border of Turkey. Depending on how robust Iran’s influence proves within this sphere, and the degree to which it might be supplemented with the presence of Iranian conventional forces, it could put substantial pressure on regional actors, in particular Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
It is important to note that the existence of nuclear weapons in Iran does not enter into this equation. Had Iran never started developing nuclear weapons, or if the weapons program were decimated, the Iranian sphere of influence would still be emerging.