Stop Worrying: There’s No Political Downside to Backing Gay Marriage
Will Obama’s Wednesday embrace of same-sex marriage equality hurt him in November? The short answer is: possible, but not likely.
First, as a general proposition, it seems unlikely that there are large numbers of socially conservative voters who lean Obama today but will be transformed into opponents simply by his declared support for marriage equality. Obama’s backing for equality for gays has, after all, been apparent throughout his administration, most famously in ending the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy in the military. A voter who’s stuck with Obama through all that is unlikely to be stampeded in the opposite direction by a position that follows so directly from those previous actions.
Second, the idea that this position will put him at serious risk among minority voters is vastly overblown. It is true that black voters are relatively conservative on this issue. According to the latest Pew poll, 49 percent oppose same sex marriage compared to 43 percent overall. But opposition among blacks is declining very rapidly indeed—down almost 4 points a year over the last four years. And it seems fanciful that many black opponents of gay marriage will transcend their very strong loyalty to the Democratic Party in general, and Obama, the first African-American president, in particular to vote against him solely on that basis.