Iran and Nuclear Weapons: Sticks Now, Carrots Later
Iran is back at the negotiating table. But trust in its diplomacy and in its theological utterances about nuclear weapons (see article) is fragile
OPTIMISM, in the intricate and frustrating world of international wrangling about Iran’s nuclear programme, is a relative concept. But the White House did call the opening of talks between Iran and the “5+1 group” (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany) in Istanbul four weeks ago a “positive first step”. After several months in which a pre-emptive military strike by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities seemed to be becoming more likely, hopes of a diplomatic solution have now risen. Attention is switching to Baghdad where, on May 23rd, the work on a deal will begin in earnest.
Iran’s return to the table in an apparently more constructive mood marks a sharp change. The latest round of talks failed in January 2011, after Iran’s chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili, set preconditions that other countries found unacceptable. But since the end of 2011 pressure on the regime in Tehran has increased. The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), published a damning report detailing its concerns over the “possible military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear programme.