Will Obama Have a Turnout Problem?
As I mentioned yesterday, Obama is doing worse among likely voters than registered voters. This isn’t totally shocking: Historically, Republicans perform two percentage points better in polls of likely voters, but it varies from election to election and the gap could increase if Democrats become even more dependent on low-turnout demographic groups, like young and Latino voters. Currently, Obama’s four percentage point gap (in an admittedly small sample) indicates that low turnout might be an usually significant challenge for Obama’s reelection effort, but its too early to say.
Why is Obama doing worse among likely voters?
The difference between likely and registered voter polls is largely attributable to changes in the racial/ethnic composition of the electorate, with young and non-white voters constituting a smaller share of likely voters than registered voters. Gallup’s tracking poll shows that 81 percent of white voters say they will “definitely vote,” compared with just 71 percent of non-white voters. Similarly, Gallup finds that 88 percent of Republicans say they will definitely vote, more than the 82 percent of Democrats who respond similarly. Just 58 percent of 18- to 29-year-old voters say they will definitely vote—a number unchanged since April, when 59 percent said they would definitely vote. Armed with data from two Monmouth University polls, Harry Enten has similar findings.