The Legal Calculus Behind Assange’s Asylum Request
With Julian Assange continuing to hide out inside the Ecuadorian embassy in London as he awaits a decision on his application for asylum from President Rafael Correa, it has become clear that the Wikileaks founder faces an dicey legal future. So while the decision to seek refuge at the Ecuadorian embassy appeared slightly bizarre at first glance, that move increasingly looks like a shrewd move by Assange.
It is by now well-known that Assange’s decision to vigorously fight extradition to Sweden is rooted in his fear that once in that country he will be extradited to the United States. According to media reports, a secret grand jury has been impaneled in Virginia to look into offenses carried out by Assange and his organization though the scope of the case is unknown.
Based on an examination of the legal agreements that govern extraditions between Sweden and the United States, Assange’s legal future will likely turn on the nature of that indictment. And because the nature of that indictment remains unknown, Assange’s decision to seek asylum is nothing short of a brilliant strategy of risk-minimization.
The extradition agreement between Sweden and the United States, first signed in 1961 and updated in 1983, prohibits extradition on the basis of “a political offense” or “an offense connected with a political offense.” The treaty does not explicitly define what constitutes a political offense, and if U.S. authorities were to seek Assange’s extradition, that decision would likely be rendered by the Swedish supreme court.