North Carolina Is Still a Toss-Up
No state gives political analysts more headaches than North Carolina, a state that barely voted for Obama in 2008’s clear national victory yet remains competitive in this year’s much tighter race. Yesterday, the Washington Post reclassified North Carolina as leaning Romney; I disagree. Although most would concede that Romney has a slight but discernible advantage in the Tar Heel state, North Carolina is still a toss-up. In fact, the scenarios for an Obama victory are far more plausible than other lean Romney states, like Missouri.
Superficially, North Carolina seems like a state that should lean Romney: Obama won it by just 14,000 votes in 2008, so it might be expected to prefer the GOP in a more competitive election. But Obama’s winning coalition has splintered unevenly, with Obama bleeding white working class support while holding firm among college educated whites and minorities. As a result, Obama should be resilient in states like North Carolina, where his coalition is disproportionately composed of the educated and diverse voters who continue to support Obama at 2008 levels. At the same time, demographic changes have further reduced the white working class’ share of the voting eligible population, albeit at a slower pace than over the previous eight years, giving Obama room to overcome modest losses among the sliver of white working class voters who supported him in 2008. These demographic realities ensure a close race in North Carolina so long as the basic demographic contours of the election endure.
This is not just an abstract calculation: The two campaigns are treating North Carolina like a toss-up state. Last week, the campaigns spent more in Charlotte than any other media market. This is not just Obama trying to nudge the state into the toss-up column—Romney and allies have matched Obama’s efforts dollar for dollar…