The Secret Battle for Syria
Few observers of the Syrian calamity would have predicted that a final battle of Damascus would have begun so soon with such a lethal display of Syrian opposition strength. For almost 8 months it has been a veritable article of faith among Syrian watchers that the Assad regime — continuously replenished and reinforced by Russian and Iranian arms — would never face a strategic military threat inside the capital even if occasional peripheral skirmishes gripped some of Damascus’ suburbs. But yesterday’s breach of Assad’s inner sanctum defenses by a well-placed bomb that killed Assad’s military high command is proof enough that Syrian opposition forces are increasingly able to level the battle field.
It’s a shame Assad himself was not in the same room when the bomb went off.
Given the media blackout imposed by the Assad regime, it is extremely difficult to decipher what and who has taken up arms against each other inside the war-torn nation. But after several months of assessing the situation from neighboring Turkey and Lebanon, and consulting with Arab reporters and Syrian opposition leaders who have contacts inside Syria, a murky, violent and terrifying picture is emerging of who and what is engaged in the fighting for and against the Assad regime.
First, the relatively known ingredients of outside military and intelligence interference:
With the assistance of “non-lethal” U.S. strategic communications equipment and reconnaissance support carried into Syria by Turkish military teams through refugee safe havens on the Turkish-Syrian border, units of the increasingly organized Free Syrian Army have lethally deployed anti-tank weapons and shoulder-fired grenade launchers smuggled from Libya and Lebanon courtesy of elements of Gulf Cooperation Council military council.
Turkey has ramped up ammunition transfers and reconnaissance support, including the occasional overflights to detect Syrian troop movements (the Syrians shot down one of Turkey’s jets a few weeks ago). U.S. CIA drones have also overflown Syria outside the prying eyes of Russian forward intelligence based on Russian ships stationed at its fortified naval base in Tartus. CIA operatives are also desperately attempting to identify and monitor Assad’s WMD stockpiles, with growing alarm that they may fall into the hands of Iranian agents or al Qaeda terrorists or worse, be used by the regime in a last ditch stand against its opponents.