Why August Will Determine Senate Control
August is usually a sleepy month in politics. Congress leaves Washington for its annual summer recess, and campaigning takes a back seat as voters, more concerned with their own vacations than with statewide elections, tune out. But that’s not the case this year. When the 113th Congress gavels into session in January, the party that controls the Senate will credit key primaries this month with handing them power.
The stakes are high for Republicans. Four states with competitive races hold GOP primaries over the next four weeks. And while the tone of a primary campaign rarely dictates the outcome in the fall, the candidates who emerge from those primaries will either help or hinder their party’s chances to win the four seats necessary to take over the upper chamber.
That makes the Republican primaries in Wisconsin, Missouri, Connecticut, and Arizona worth watching.
Sen. Claire McCaskill of MissouriMissouriPOPULATION (2008): 5,988,927REGISTERED VOTERS: 0.0% R, 0.0% D, 0.0% I GOVERNOR: Gov. Jay Nixon (D)SENATORS: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), Sen. Roy Blunt (R) Missouri or Missouri to read the full profile remains the most vulnerable Democrat seeking reelection this year. A recent St. Louis Post-Dispatch survey showed her trailing all three of her possible competitors — Rep. Todd Akin, businessman John Brunner, and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman — between 5 and 11 percentage points. In the same poll, more MissouriMissouriPOPULATION (2008): 5,988,927REGISTERED VOTERS: 0.0% R, 0.0% D, 0.0% I GOVERNOR: Gov. Jay Nixon (D)SENATORS: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), Sen. Roy Blunt (R) Missouri or Missouri to read the full profile ans said they view McCaskill unfavorably than favorably, highlighting her vulnerability.
McCaskill caught the perfect wave in 2006, when she knocked off incumbent Republican Jim Talent. She had served as the state auditor, which gave her the chance to cast herself as an outsider bent on reforming government. And she ran at a time when voters were upset with the country’s direction. Exit polls showed a majority of voters disapproving of the job President George W. Bush was doing and of the war in Iraq.
Everything that worked for McCaskill then is working against her now. She’s the incumbent, one who cast tough votes for health care reform legislation, the economic stimulus, and the Troubled Asset Relief Program. President Obama is unpopular in the state, and while some Democrats have run away from the top of the ticket, McCaskill has openly embraced him and urged him to run a campaign in MissouriMissouriPOPULATION (2008): 5,988,927REGISTERED VOTERS: 0.0% R, 0.0% D, 0.0% I GOVERNOR: Gov. Jay Nixon (D)SENATORS: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), Sen. Roy Blunt (R) Missouri or Missouri to read the full profile .