Revolution in the Arab World: The Twilight of the Dictators
WHY did they fall? In the months that followed the advent of the Arab spring, authors have rushed to explain why some dictators have been unseated but not others; whether Islamist revolutions will flourish in their wake; and whether there is anything sensible the West can do other than hold its breath.
These are not easy questions, but one of the strongest attempts to answer them is “The Battle for the Arab Spring” by Lin Noueihed, a Reuters correspondent, and Alex Warren, who runs a Middle East consultancy. This book describes what happened, considers the role of new media among frustrated youths and provides a wealth of data about the economies and demographics of the countries at the heart of the drama—Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Syria and Yemen.
The authors refrain from predicting the fate of the newly empowered Islamist movements, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia. But they imply that Islamist revolutions are unlikely. The Arab spring, they suggest optimistically and persuasively, has created a new frame of mind—an unwillingness to accept humiliation and corruption, a readiness to transcend fear. There is a new faith that people can resist tyranny and change their lives.
Roger Owen, a historian at Harvard, wrote “The Rise and Fall of Arab Presidents for Life” before the wave of Arab protest that began in December 2010, and then updated it. Events have enhanced its timeliness, as it is a kind of obituary for the “monarchical presidencies” of the Arab world. The book looks at the local differences and underlying similarities between the region’s leaders. Many began as nationalists and evolved into uncrowned kings, presiding over security states of monstrous proportions. “The law”, declared Saddam Hussein, “is anything I write on a scrap of paper.” These men often transferred power to their sons. In Syria in 2000 this seemed to go smoothly, when Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father, Hafiz. Less so for Hosni Mubarak, who denied that he was grooming his son, Gamal, for the Egyptian presidency. Confusion about his intentions did nothing to help him when the mass protests erupted in Tahrir Square. Mr Owen’s book provides a sharp look at the tyrannies the Arab spring is attempting to sweep away.