Chavez Victory May Be Short-Lived
NORIEGA: Chavez Victory May Be Short-Lived
Venezuela’s democratic opposition leaders are disappointed by their unsuccessful campaign to unseat caudillo Hugo Chavez in elections on Oct. 7. It may be too soon to give up hope. Mr. Chavez is losing his battle with cancer, his regime is being undermined by infighting and criminality, and he must deal with a series of elections that will take place throughout the country in the coming year.
Mr. Chavez is sick, and his campaign schedule took a strong physical toll on him. For more than six months, reliable sources have explained to me that Mr. Chavez’s medical team is merely treating symptoms of his aggressive cancer to maintain a public facade. For most of the campaign period, this ruse succeeded. A dramatic video from his closing rally on Oct. 4 shows Mr. Chavez tumbling backward, apparently disoriented, and being rushed away by panicked aides.
He is paying the ultimate price — and for what? His regime now must wrestle with a public security crisis that has claimed 160,000 lives since 1999 and an economic disaster compounded by profligate election-year spending. It is difficult to see how a government whose congress and army are led by reputed narco-traffickers and that hosts Iran and Hezbollah could be legitimized by any election. Moreover, it should be clear even to the casual observer that Mr. Chavez did not win a fair fight a week ago. Indeed, from the outset, many Venezuelans were skeptical of waging such a contest in light of the regime’s abuse of billions of dollars in public spending, command of the media, Cuban-managed internal security apparatus and ruthless threat of political violence.
Nevertheless, the unprecedented unity and enthusiasm that fueled the campaign of Henrique Capriles Radonski — who won 45 percent of the vote, even with the dubious count of a Chavez-controlled electoral board — demonstrated the opposition’s formidable strength. The 2012 campaign did not vanquish the opposition; it created it. A unified opposition is better prepared to compete for votes and power in the very near future.
