The Cities Involved. Bani Walid is the Green Marker, Misrata the Pale Blue Marker, and the Cities assisting Misrata (Zintan and Az-Zawiyah) are in dark blue

It has now been about a year since the final overthrow of Qaddafi’s regime after his death at the Third Battle of Sirte. In that time, Libya has had its first elections since the overthrow of the Senussi Dynasty in 1969. Things are moving ahead slowly and chaotically, which is to be expected of a nation emerging from a devastating civil war where government institutions have to be built from scratch, and 3 of the nations 5 major cities have been heavily destroyed (Mirata, Sirte, and Az Zawiya). The US just after we gained our independence was in a similar situation, after all, until the current Constitution had been ratified by 9 of the 13 states on June 21, 1788.

However, tensions between Misrata and Bani Walid have erupted into violence in the past 48 hours. During the war, many of the people from Bani Walid sided with Qaddafi and participated in the ruinous attack on Misrata. Late in the war, Bani Walid was put under seige and eventually taken by the Revolution’s Militias, many of whom were from Misrata.

However, Bani Walid has been chafing under the new governments. The first sign of issues was in Mid-January, when people in the town threw out the new government’s supporting militias, took their weaponry, and installed an independent government. While this was accepted by the National Transitional Council, things remained tense. A good example of this was the fact that Bani Walid refused to allow in Election Monitors during the election during the summer, which should call the election results in the small city into question.

But the event that has caused the current fighting was the July kidnapping and murder of Omran Shaaban, one of the men responsible for Qaddafi’s capture. This occurred at the same time Bani Walid was holding 2 Misratan Journalists in prison, adding even more tension the the surrounding events. After the murder the city of Bani Walid was given an ultimatum to hand over those responsible by October 5th. Bani Walid refused, saying no judiciary system exists in Libya.

This caused the central government to authorize the seizure of those responsible by force. While some Libyan Nation Military forces are involved, the bulk of the fighters are militias. While many of them are from Misrata, the town of Zintan, and the city of Az-Zawiyah are also offering militias to assist. During the war, Zintan was under siege for months, while Az-Zawiyah suffered even heavier destruction than Misrata. It seems these 2 population centers may also have a bone to pick with Bani Walid.

As the battle itself, it has become a siege of the town. The Misratans and their allies are having a hard time getting in, As a result of the wide open road providing no cover, and the fact that the northern part of Bani Walid is sprawled through some shallow ravines. In addition, the eastern side of the small city goes along the road towards Misrata about 16 kilometers, providing a large amount of defensive area before the city proper. This is aided by the fact that the road is at the bottom of a ravine, providing Bani Walid the high ground. As of about 9pm MST, the battle for Walid has claimed the lives of 30+ soldiers on the Misratan Side, 9 fighters from Bani Walid, and 21 Civilians in the city. 300 on the Misratan side have been wounded. Artillery fire is now regularly going into the city, and hitting indiscriminately, having hit several houses. This has resulted in no fewer 5 of the civilian casualties, and 40 homes destroyed.

As for how this situation develops, it seems this will not be settled peacefully. Negotiations between Misrata and Bani Walid collapsed yesterday. And, because of the situation with roads, it is unlikely Bani Walid will be getting much in the way of supplies. Also, Bani Walid is completely out numbered, as shown by the tiny little chart-ish thing below:

Populations:
Misrata-281,000
Zintan-16,024
Az-Zawiyah-200,000
Bani Walid-84,425

In terms of population pool (Not counting the Libyan Shield Force, a more properly trained military), Bani Walid is out numbered 5.88 to 1. This is roughly the equivalent of Toledo (OH), Tacoma (WA), and Cañon City (CO) attacking Deltona, FL. Simply put, Misrata and their allies can replace losses more readily than Bani Walid. Eventually, Bani Walid’s defenses should collapse from sheer attrition. After that happens, its likely to be grim for the city, as Misrata still seems to hold a grudge from the war and subsequent actions, and its not out of the question Zintan and Az-Zawiyah feel the same. To what extent Bani Walid will suffer, I am not sure. Certainly, the city will be heavily damaged.