Analysis: Hamas Brinkmanship Masks Quiet Confidence
Analysis: Hamas Brinkmanship Masks Quiet Confidence
One of 70-odd rockets fired from Gaza into Israel this week hit a chicken coop, critically wounding two Thai migrant workers, innocent bystanders in a deadly game of brinkmanship.
If it had killed children on the Israeli farm they work for, Israel and Gaza would probably be at war right now.
Gaza’s Islamist rulers, Hamas, know what a fine line they tread when they fire rockets at Israel: maybe they’ll explode in a field and draw a few targeted air strikes; or maybe they’ll hit a kindergarten and Israel will bombard the Gaza Strip, as it did in their lopsided three-week war at the turn of 2008-2009.
Over 1,300 Palestinian lives were lost and 13 Israelis died.
Since then, there has been a sporadic low-intensity conflict with its own codes and rules, looking almost choreographed at times in the predictability of strike, counter-strike, escalation, de-escalation and truce.
What was less predictable about the latest flare-up was that Hamas, which has been trying to curb attacks, would launch one of the biggest rocket barrages of the year just one day after the Emir of Qatar paid a landmark visit, happily celebrated in Gaza as the end of nearly six years of isolation.
The pro-Western Qatari leader, no gun-kissing militant, was the first head of state to visit Hamas since they seized power in the crowded enclave in 2007. He also donated a cool $400 million in reconstruction aid to help its 1.7 million people.
This might have prompted a reflective pause in the impoverished enclave running a skinny 40 km (25 miles) down the Mediterranean shore between Israel and Egypt.
Instead, a rain of Hamas rockets sent Israelis in southern towns and farms running for shelter. Hamas posted video of multiple rocket launchers firing at the “vampire, criminal” Zionist enemy they vow to drive out of the region.
“It was a calculated escalation,” said Khalil Abu Shammala of the Ad Ameer human rights group. “The rockets used were short range, though Hamas and other groups have rockets with ranges of 20 km and more. But they did not use them and that is evidence the escalation was calculated and limited.”