Gallup Predicts Voter Turnout Will Remain Unchanged in 2012 Election
Democratic strategists are grimacing at a recent Gallup poll out Friday showing the make up of the electorate remains virtually unchanged since the 2008 election.
The survey of likely voters shows nonwhites, blacks and Hispanics sharing roughly the same share of the electorate Gallup predicted in 2008. According to Gallup’s year by year analysis, blacks account for 11 percent of voters this year when in 2008, they made up 12 percent of the electorate. And Gallup predicts Hispanics grew to be 7 percent of the electorate, a one point increase since their 2008 prediction.
“Key elements of President Barack Obama’s electoral coalitions, such as racial minorities, women, young adults and postgraduates will likely turn out at rates similar to those in 2008,” the survey says.
But the Obama campaign sees it differently.
“The electorate has changed,” Jeremy Bird, the national field director for Obama’s campaign, wrote in a memo Friday. “The Latino community is playing a key role in our diverse, grassroots movement to re-elect President Obama.”