Jump to bottom


1 Bob Dillon  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:11:18pm

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

2 Locker  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:19:13pm

Ok so this article by David Frum pisses me off as he completely ignores the current situation with the Ohio Secretary of State, Florida, the voter id laws etc by going back in time 12 years to mention ONLY Demoncrats. However, it does make it's point about politicians having influence over elections:


Almost everywhere else, elections are run by impartial voting agencies. In France, elections are the responsibility of the Ministry of the Interior, which establishes places and hours of voting, prints ballots (France still uses paper) and counts the votes. In Germany, an independent federal returning officer oversees a complex state and federal voting system. In Canada, federal elections are managed by a specialized agency, Elections Canada. Mexico, emerging from a sad history of electoral manipulation, created in the 1990s a respected independent agency, the Federal Electoral Institute. Brazil has nationwide electronic voting, producing instantaneous, uncontested results.

3 jvic  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:26:41pm

re: #1 Bob Dillon

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

It may not come to that. Also worth reading at National Review is this assessment by the American Enterprise Institute's Henry Olsen:

Clearly, supporters of each candidate differ in their predictions. Followers of my writing know which team I am on. (Hint: It’s not the incumbent’s.) But I write as an analyst, not a partisan, and what follows is my best prediction of what will happen, why, and what needs to transpire to prove me wrong.

My Final Answer
Obama: 49.39 percent; 303 EV
Romney: 48.24 percent; 235 EV

4 Locker  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 6:03:25pm

That's two articles today which I would normally never see or read. Ok "skimmed" but the Henry Olsen one I read, even though I had bad twinges which nearly stopped me in my tracks.

Race is a trigger word for both "sides" but in different ways. On the left, based solely on my personal experience, using race in any way, shape or form is probably racist. That's the assumption. Not saying it's truth, it's just the ultra-sensitive, guilty, sorry, wanting to help thing that we do.

When I reach the point in the article where Mr Olsen stated he was going to use race to determine the election results my first mental reaction was:

Here we go, more of this "People only vote for him because he's black", thing.

That I even read one more word after reading the following quote is so unlikely that I can't even describe it. Hypersensitivity can be "that bad" where you can ignore context that directly surrounds the trigger word and your reaction ignores it.

I could try to cut through this Gordian knot, but ultimately I decided to transcend the whole argument entirely. I am basing my forecast on a factor I believe to be much more stable and hence less subject to partisan shading or statistical variation: race.

I did continue into the article and realized it my assumption was false. The author was discussing the race of the voters as related to polling numbers and using that model to do predictions. Predictions which seem to result in numbers which seem very, very similar to Nate Silver's over at FiveThirtyEight blog.

I enjoyed reading the article and I learned a lot, chiefly that it's always good to stretch once in a while. Probably a lot more than once in a while.

Thank you.

5 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 7:57:04pm

re: #1 Bob Dillon

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

Quite possibly. Even if either candidate was to win by Jimmy Carter's margin of 11,000 votes, an automatic recount would be triggered. And as Fund points out, the litigation surrounding that recount will be just brutal.

The greatest fear I have in that scenario is that Fund's "bloody recount" becomes bloody in truth. Emotions are running so high that any Ohio recount is bound to cause some people to cry "The other side is trying to steal the election!" and its quite possible that such a cry by the wrong person at the wrong time might well serve as the catalyst for significant violence. I really hope that does not come to pass, and to avoid it we'll all need to do our part to remind those we know to eschew inflammatory rhetoric.

6 jvic  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 11:14:43pm

re: #4 Locker

Thank you.

You're welcome. I'm glad the article was worth your time.

This page has been archived.
Comments are closed.

Jump to top

Create a Page

This is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.

Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.

Last updated: 2015-09-11 10:11 am PDT

LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!

Recent Pages
Florida Man Reports Dead Body by Reinacting Hamlet
Alas, poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio.. Shoppers at a Publix in Sebastian, Florida, called 911 Tuesday afternoon after spotting a homeless man carrying around an actual human skull. "He was using it as a puppet," said witness Nick Pecoraro ...

3 hours, 27 minutes ago
Views: 142 • Comments: 2
Tweets: 2 • Rating: 1
Alltime10s - 10 True Stories That Will Restore Your Faith In Humanity (Video)
Just thought I'd post something to cheer you guys up for a change. The world isn't all bad, thankfully. The youtube channel Alltime10s ( Its a channel that specializes in top ten lists as you might have guessed ) has ...

4 hours, 53 minutes ago
Views: 103 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 0
I Stand With Planned Parenthood
The Chains of Mental Illness in West Africa - the New York Times
Troubled Minds, Shackled BodiesThis series examines the struggle to care for people with mental illness in places where psychiatry is virtually unknown. PART I: THE CHAINS OF MENTAL ILLNESS IN WEST AFRICA KPOVÉ, Togo -- The church grounds here sprawled ...

12 hours, 25 minutes ago
Views: 142 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 1
John Vreeland
Crowd of Football Fans in Dallas Egg On Shooter
Things to note: This was a weakly enforced gun-free zone. The story was put together from a few short reports. Alas there is no video. (Are fights at tailgate parties common?) So much for that "polite society" BS More cowbell: ...

13 hours, 7 minutes ago
Views: 221 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 0
No, Your Eco-Vacation Is Not Actually Doing Animals Any Favors
A paper published Friday in Trends in Ecology and Evolution suggests that visitors to protected wildlife areas may be harming the local fauna, no matter how good their practices and intentions. In an analysis of 100 studies on animal ...

20 hours, 3 minutes ago
Views: 224 • Comments: 1
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 2
William Lewis
Happy Birthday John Lennon
And now for something completely different... Today, Oct 9, 2015 would have been his 75th birthday. Thanks for the music, John.

3 days, 6 hours ago
Views: 358 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 2
Great White Snark
How Iranian General Plotted Out Syrian Assault in Moscow
At a meeting in Moscow in July, a top Iranian general unfurled a map of Syria to explain to his Russian hosts how a series of defeats for President Bashar al-Assad could be turned into victory - with Russia's ...

5 days, 11 hours ago
Views: 635 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 18 • Rating: 1
Paul Canning
World’s Main Security Issue Today Is Russian Poisoned Public Opinion
I have posted before about how Americans seem to be unaware just how much Russians are being told to hate them. In this article Andreas Umland, a Kyiv based analyst and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic ...

1 week, 4 days ago
Views: 1,078 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 6 • Rating: 2
The Autumn DIY Project
Ok, so September is not exactly New Year, but as the academic term begins and schools go back following the holidays, it does feel like a fresh start. It can be a good time to tackle new projects, so why ...

2 weeks, 4 days ago
Views: 854 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 2 • Rating: 0