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6 comments

1 Bob Dillon  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:11:18pm

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

2 Locker  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:19:13pm

Ok so this article by David Frum pisses me off as he completely ignores the current situation with the Ohio Secretary of State, Florida, the voter id laws etc by going back in time 12 years to mention ONLY Demoncrats. However, it does make it's point about politicians having influence over elections:

[Link: us.cnn.com...]

Almost everywhere else, elections are run by impartial voting agencies. In France, elections are the responsibility of the Ministry of the Interior, which establishes places and hours of voting, prints ballots (France still uses paper) and counts the votes. In Germany, an independent federal returning officer oversees a complex state and federal voting system. In Canada, federal elections are managed by a specialized agency, Elections Canada. Mexico, emerging from a sad history of electoral manipulation, created in the 1990s a respected independent agency, the Federal Electoral Institute. Brazil has nationwide electronic voting, producing instantaneous, uncontested results.

3 jvic  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:26:41pm

re: #1 Bob Dillon

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

It may not come to that. Also worth reading at National Review is this assessment by the American Enterprise Institute's Henry Olsen:

Clearly, supporters of each candidate differ in their predictions. Followers of my writing know which team I am on. (Hint: It’s not the incumbent’s.) But I write as an analyst, not a partisan, and what follows is my best prediction of what will happen, why, and what needs to transpire to prove me wrong.

My Final Answer
Obama: 49.39 percent; 303 EV
Romney: 48.24 percent; 235 EV
etc

4 Locker  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 6:03:25pm

That's two articles today which I would normally never see or read. Ok "skimmed" but the Henry Olsen one I read, even though I had bad twinges which nearly stopped me in my tracks.

Race is a trigger word for both "sides" but in different ways. On the left, based solely on my personal experience, using race in any way, shape or form is probably racist. That's the assumption. Not saying it's truth, it's just the ultra-sensitive, guilty, sorry, wanting to help thing that we do.

When I reach the point in the article where Mr Olsen stated he was going to use race to determine the election results my first mental reaction was:

Here we go, more of this "People only vote for him because he's black", thing.

That I even read one more word after reading the following quote is so unlikely that I can't even describe it. Hypersensitivity can be "that bad" where you can ignore context that directly surrounds the trigger word and your reaction ignores it.

I could try to cut through this Gordian knot, but ultimately I decided to transcend the whole argument entirely. I am basing my forecast on a factor I believe to be much more stable and hence less subject to partisan shading or statistical variation: race.

I did continue into the article and realized it my assumption was false. The author was discussing the race of the voters as related to polling numbers and using that model to do predictions. Predictions which seem to result in numbers which seem very, very similar to Nate Silver's over at FiveThirtyEight blog.

I enjoyed reading the article and I learned a lot, chiefly that it's always good to stretch once in a while. Probably a lot more than once in a while.

Thank you.

5 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 7:57:04pm

re: #1 Bob Dillon

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

Quite possibly. Even if either candidate was to win by Jimmy Carter's margin of 11,000 votes, an automatic recount would be triggered. And as Fund points out, the litigation surrounding that recount will be just brutal.

The greatest fear I have in that scenario is that Fund's "bloody recount" becomes bloody in truth. Emotions are running so high that any Ohio recount is bound to cause some people to cry "The other side is trying to steal the election!" and its quite possible that such a cry by the wrong person at the wrong time might well serve as the catalyst for significant violence. I really hope that does not come to pass, and to avoid it we'll all need to do our part to remind those we know to eschew inflammatory rhetoric.

6 jvic  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 11:14:43pm

re: #4 Locker

Thank you.

You're welcome. I'm glad the article was worth your time.


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