Pages

6 comments

Jump to bottom
1 Bob Dillon  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:11:18pm

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

2 Locker  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:19:13pm

Ok so this article by David Frum pisses me off as he completely ignores the current situation with the Ohio Secretary of State, Florida, the voter id laws etc by going back in time 12 years to mention ONLY Demoncrats. However, it does make it's point about politicians having influence over elections:

[Link: us.cnn.com...]

Almost everywhere else, elections are run by impartial voting agencies. In France, elections are the responsibility of the Ministry of the Interior, which establishes places and hours of voting, prints ballots (France still uses paper) and counts the votes. In Germany, an independent federal returning officer oversees a complex state and federal voting system. In Canada, federal elections are managed by a specialized agency, Elections Canada. Mexico, emerging from a sad history of electoral manipulation, created in the 1990s a respected independent agency, the Federal Electoral Institute. Brazil has nationwide electronic voting, producing instantaneous, uncontested results.

3 jvic  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 5:26:41pm

re: #1 Bob Dillon

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

It may not come to that. Also worth reading at National Review is this assessment by the American Enterprise Institute's Henry Olsen:

Clearly, supporters of each candidate differ in their predictions. Followers of my writing know which team I am on. (Hint: It’s not the incumbent’s.) But I write as an analyst, not a partisan, and what follows is my best prediction of what will happen, why, and what needs to transpire to prove me wrong.

My Final Answer
Obama: 49.39 percent; 303 EV
Romney: 48.24 percent; 235 EV
etc

4 Locker  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 6:03:25pm

That's two articles today which I would normally never see or read. Ok "skimmed" but the Henry Olsen one I read, even though I had bad twinges which nearly stopped me in my tracks.

Race is a trigger word for both "sides" but in different ways. On the left, based solely on my personal experience, using race in any way, shape or form is probably racist. That's the assumption. Not saying it's truth, it's just the ultra-sensitive, guilty, sorry, wanting to help thing that we do.

When I reach the point in the article where Mr Olsen stated he was going to use race to determine the election results my first mental reaction was:

Here we go, more of this "People only vote for him because he's black", thing.

That I even read one more word after reading the following quote is so unlikely that I can't even describe it. Hypersensitivity can be "that bad" where you can ignore context that directly surrounds the trigger word and your reaction ignores it.

I could try to cut through this Gordian knot, but ultimately I decided to transcend the whole argument entirely. I am basing my forecast on a factor I believe to be much more stable and hence less subject to partisan shading or statistical variation: race.

I did continue into the article and realized it my assumption was false. The author was discussing the race of the voters as related to polling numbers and using that model to do predictions. Predictions which seem to result in numbers which seem very, very similar to Nate Silver's over at FiveThirtyEight blog.

I enjoyed reading the article and I learned a lot, chiefly that it's always good to stretch once in a while. Probably a lot more than once in a while.

Thank you.

5 Dark_Falcon  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 7:57:04pm

re: #1 Bob Dillon

Good piece. With both sides already lawyered up, unless the polls are way off its probably going to be reality.

Quite possibly. Even if either candidate was to win by Jimmy Carter's margin of 11,000 votes, an automatic recount would be triggered. And as Fund points out, the litigation surrounding that recount will be just brutal.

The greatest fear I have in that scenario is that Fund's "bloody recount" becomes bloody in truth. Emotions are running so high that any Ohio recount is bound to cause some people to cry "The other side is trying to steal the election!" and its quite possible that such a cry by the wrong person at the wrong time might well serve as the catalyst for significant violence. I really hope that does not come to pass, and to avoid it we'll all need to do our part to remind those we know to eschew inflammatory rhetoric.

6 jvic  Mon, Nov 5, 2012 11:14:43pm

re: #4 Locker

Thank you.

You're welcome. I'm glad the article was worth your time.


This page has been archived.
Comments are closed.

^ back to top ^

TwitterFacebook

Turn off all ads for a full year by subscribing!
Take advantage of our yearly subscription, and save 50% off the normal subscription price! One-year ad-free subscriptions are just $59.95. Turn off all ads for a full year by subscribing now and save!
Read more...

► LGF Headlines

  • Loading...

► Tweeted Articles

  • Loading...

► Tweeted Pages

  • Loading...

► Top 10 Comments

  • Loading...

► Bottom Comments

  • Loading...

► Recent Comments

  • Loading...

► Tools/Info

► Tag Cloud

► Contact

You must have Javascript enabled to use the contact form.
Your email:

Subject:

Message:


Messages may be published unless you request otherwise.
Tech Note:
Using the Contact Form
LGF Pages

This button leads to the main index of LGF Pages, our user-submitted articles. You can post your own LGF Pages simply by registering a free account with us.

Create a Page

This is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.

Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.

Last updated: 2015-06-25 5:21 pm PDT

LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds
Recent Pages
Thanos
6 String Drag - Give Up the Night
6 String Drag stopped by the WNRN Studios for an acoustic session of songs from their new record "Roots Rock'n'Roll". Please subscribe to our WNRN YouTube video channel.

18 minutes ago
Views: 21 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 0
Fred72
The SCOTUS gay marriage FAQ, by Conservative Reason
My favorite: It was conservatives who were largely against interracial marriage in the 1960s. Does that mean that they're still against interracial marriage? A huge, very emphatic NO. Conservatives at the time were against interracial marriage. Conservatives get unfairly portrayed ...

2 hours, 10 minutes ago
Views: 57 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 0
Cheechako
Test Pilot Admits the F-35 Can’t Dogfight
War Is Boringby DAVID AXE A test pilot has some very, very bad news about the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. The pricey new stealth jet can't turn or climb fast enough to hit an enemy plane during a dogfight ...

3 days, 17 hours ago
Views: 589 • Comments: 5
Tweets: 10 • Rating: 3
Rocky-in-Connecticut
NBC Hands an Asshat his Ass
money.cnn.com Business is business. And business is pretty sweet these days when blowhard Know-nothings like Trump get what's coming.

4 days, 6 hours ago
Views: 362 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 3
PhillyPretzel
Patrick Macnee dies
I was looking at Philly com this morning and I saw this article. I was one of those who watched some episodes of this old series and liked it. Please read this article on Patrick Macnee from their website: philly.com ...

5 days, 9 hours ago
Views: 331 • Comments: 1
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 2
FemNaziBitch
Many See a Victory for Children, Too - Video
Thousands, including parents, babies and dogs, flocked to the Supreme Court after its ruling on same-sex marriage. Supporters spoke about how they thought the ruling helped maintain and support families. More: Many See a Victory for Children, Too - ...

5 days, 16 hours ago
Views: 287 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 0
Lumberhead
‘It’s Time for Good Cops to Do Something About Bad Cops’
Today's relationship between the Baltimore police department and the city's black residents was determined by neither Obama Administration statements nor New York Times editorials nor liberal hashtag activists. Rather, it was determined by years of interactions between residents of ...

6 days, 1 hour ago
Views: 779 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 36 • Rating: 1
SteveMcGaziBolaGate
Schoolchildren Build a Better Condom
From philly.com "A group of schoolchildren from Essex, England, have invented a condom that detects sexually transmitted infections such as chlamydia and syphilis."The condom would change color to warn the couple if a strain of bacteria is present." That's the ...

1 week, 2 days ago
Views: 428 • Comments: 3
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 1
aagcobb
A New Study Gives Us Another Reason to Celebrate Working Mothers - Vox
Matthew Yglesias, Vox: A New Study Gives Us Another Reason to Celebrate Working Mothers - Vox The researchers find statistically significant differences in outcomes for both boys and girls, though the outcomes are different. Daughters of working moms grow up ...

1 week, 2 days ago
Views: 320 • Comments: 0
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 1
Great White Snark
Hypocritical Taylor Swift Photo Contract: Break Our Rules, and We Can Break Your Gear
Pop star power play. Yesterday, photographer Jason Sheldon published an open letter to Taylor Swift, accusing the singer of being a hypocrite by accusing Apple of treating artists unfairly while herself handing out heavy-handed contracts for concert photographers to sign. ...

1 week, 3 days ago
Views: 714 • Comments: 7
Tweets: 0 • Rating: 3
 Frank says:

The formal structure of "You Didn't Try to Call Me" is not revolutionary, but it is interesting. You don't care. -- Liner notes for "You Didn't Try to Call Me" on "Freak Out!"