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So many writers and pundits thought this was an analytical slam dunk. Israel was going to attack Iran and force the US President into an awkward position. This would be the way that Israel would interfere in the US election.
Here is the update on the October surprise:
It didn’t happen.
13 comments
Jump to bottom1 |
sliv_the_eli Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:06:08pm |
The possibility of Israel rushing headlong to attack Iran in October was about as reality-based as the claims earlier this year that Israel was going to rush headlong to attack Iran this past Spring. Remember the following?:
Panetta believes Israel may strike Iran this spring: reports
Thu, Feb 2 2012
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes there is a growing possibility Israel will attack Iran as early as April to stop Tehran from building a nuclear bomb, U.S. media reported on Thursday.
The Washington Post first reported that Panetta was concerned about the increased likelihood Israel would launch an attack over the next few months. CNN said it confirmed the report, citing a senior Obama administration official, who declined to be identified.
"Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June - before Iran enters what Israelis described as a 'zone of immunity' to commence building a nuclear bomb," Washington Post columnist David Ignatius wrote.
[Link: www.reuters.com...]
The reality is that the Israeli leadership will act in this matter precisely as they have been doing and as they have stated that the will, namely, that they prefer to work with the world community to resolve this problem, and will take military action only if there is no choice and their backs are against the wall.
| 2 |
Destro Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:06:51pm |
Pundits posited that raising the threat of an attack on Iran was designed to help Romney and give him talking points against Obama not an actual attack itself
| 3 |
sliv_the_eli Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:16:51pm |
re: #2 Destro
Those would be the same pundits who disingenuously raised the threat of an attack in the first place in order to justify their so-called "analysis" that PM Netanyahu was thereby attempting to influence the election in Romney's favor. The reality is that certain US media outlets (e.g., NYT) and "pundits" on this forum (you know who you are) treat PM Netanyahu precisely the way they accuse others of treating President Obama, namely, by painting him as a grotesque caricature in an attempt to portray their own positions as being reasonable.
| 4 |
sagehen Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:29:27pm |
Here's a theory -- Obama and Netanyahu are secret BFF's (who have to keep it secret for strategic reasons), and they're playing good cop-bad cop to get Iran to cut a deal with Obama.
| 5 |
Destro Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:31:07pm |
re: #3 sliv_the_eli
Netanyahu is an ally of fringe groups ala Glen Beck. The lack of respect follows that.
| 6 |
Destro Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:31:23pm |
re: #4 sagehen
Here's a theory -- Obama and Netanyahu are secret BFF's (who have to keep it secret for strategic reasons), and they're playing good cop-bad cop to get Iran to cut a deal with Obama.
No.
| 7 |
SanFranciscoZionist Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:37:50pm |
This will, of course, give no one pause next time.
| 8 |
Destro Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:38:18pm |
re: #3 sliv_the_eli
Here is the Jerusalem Post column in question:
[Link: www.jpost.com...]
Is Netanyahu planning an October surprise? By DOUGLAS
BLOOMFIELD09/05/2012 22:48Washington Watch: Is partisan rhetoric is aimed at preventing nuclear Iran and how much at preventing Obama’s reelection?
| 9 |
Bob Levin Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:55:21pm |
re: #8 Destro
Yes, many people were writing about this--who evidently didn't understand the realities of the situation. That's my point.
| 10 |
Bob Levin Wed, Nov 7, 2012 12:58:09pm |
re: #5 Destro
Since when are you privy to the thoughts and conversations of world leaders? For all anyone knows, it's Harvard vs. MIT when those two get together. That's actually a productive discussion.
| 11 |
sliv_the_eli Wed, Nov 7, 2012 1:49:53pm |
re: #8 Destro
I am familiar with the article and with the author. And he fits the description in my post precisely.
| 12 |
sliv_the_eli Wed, Nov 7, 2012 1:53:10pm |
re: #10 Bob Levin
Since when are you privy to the thoughts and conversations of world leaders? For all anyone knows, it's Harvard vs. MIT when those two get together. That's actually a productive discussion.
MIT usually comes out ahead in that competition.
[Link: www.time.com...]
| 13 |
sliv_the_eli Wed, Nov 7, 2012 2:02:32pm |
re: #4 sagehen
Here's a theory -- Obama and Netanyahu are secret BFF's (who have to keep it secret for strategic reasons), and they're playing good cop-bad cop to get Iran to cut a deal with Obama.
It is not an illogical theory and, to a certain extent is certainly true, since they are allies pursuing a similar goal of trying to prevent Iran from further destabilizing the entire Middle East and South Asia. However, the theory fails when it assumes that the goal is for Iran to cut a deal with Obama. Two basic reasons for this. One, the mullah-cracy that runs Iran, and their armed henchmen in the IRGC and Basij militias are radical ideologues, who are unlikely to cut a real deal. Two, it assumes that Netanyahu believes a "deal" with the Iranian mullahs is a desirable outcome. Since, unlike many of the talking heads who have routinely criticized him, Netanyahu has a realistic understanding of the Iranian regime and its goals, that is not likely to be the case.
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