Israel’s Goals, Hamas’ Choices, and Egypt in the Middle
Israel’s Goals, Hamas’ Choices, and Egypt in the Middle
fter six days of airstrikes against the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, Israel faces a decision: to negotiate a cease-fire with Hamas or mount a ground operation. Today, I spoke to my BICOM colleague Michael Herzog—a retired brigadier general in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) who served from 2006 to 2009 as chief of staff to Israel’s minister of defense—about the framework within which that decision is being debated in the political and military leaderships.
The fundamental judgement to be made is whether the aims set by Israel for Operation Pillar of Defense have been achieved. These aims are modest in Israeli terms. The aim is not to topple Hamas. It is to restore normalcy for Israeli citizens by reinstating deterrence. To that end the IDF seeks to degrade the capability and motivation of the terrorists and deny Hamas and other armed groups in the Gaza Strip access to the long-range weapons that fell near Tel Aviv and Jerusalem last week.
Jihadi groups have mushroomed in Gaza and the Sinai. These groups reject the “rules of the game” and Hamas either would not or could not control them. Israel responded to these attacks and found itself in a cycle. Hamas made the decision to become involved in the attacks on Israel and claim responsibility. They pushed the envelope too hard and miscalculated badly what the Israeli response would be.
The question is whether normalcy can be restored by five or six days of airstrikes. There is no rush to launch a ground operation that will demand a high price in lives lost on both sides and in political capital. There is hope that the mediation by Sunni Islamic powers, especially Egypt, can persuade Hamas to end the rocket attacks. There have been rising tensions between Iran and Hamas caused by the Hamas’s failure to support Syria’s Bashar Assad and the resulting Iranian withdrawal of funding from Hamas.