California has effectively become a one-party state. Election Day 2012 earned Democrats a two-thirds majority in both houses of the state legislature, the first time in 80 years that any party has achieved that feat here. That will allow them to pass virtually anything they want in the next legislative session, including crafting ballot initiatives or passing laws to raise taxes that have previously been opposed by Republicans. But the GOP’s newfound insignificance in this state legislature isn’t its greatest worry. Republicans are warning that if the national party doesn’t heed the example of California, it could head towards political irrelevance on a larger scale.
While my heart may say “Good!” my head knows that we need at least 2 viable parties in this country to inject some sort of conversation into the mix. GOP needs to accept the fact that their positions need to change rather than blaming their losses on the convenient scapegoat of the moment.
We already have that scenario here in Tennessee in our state capitol...except it's the other way around. Here, the GOP just stretched out its majority in both houses of our legislature to filibuster-proof supermajorities and the Democrats on our Capitol Hill are more or less powerless to put up more than token resistance on anything.
I love my state, because there is a lot of beauty and resources here, but as of right now, politics-wise, Nashville/Davidson County and Memphis/Shelby County are specks of blue in a sea of red.
No worries, there is no risk of this happening, public moods shift with the wind. Just because they backed democrats this election does not necessarily mean that they will in the next. They have to produce some measure of progress and success at getting this country moving again or the voters will drop them like a bad habit.
Besides even with current levels of support I fully expect the Dems to get their butts kicked in 2014 and lose the *Senate. The religious right and the republican base will be out in force like always and without a presidential race to vote for half of the Dems will stay home like always. That will sure take some of the wind out of the sails of the "From now on the Dems rule!" over-exuberant crowd. :(
*20 democrat seats up for grabs and only 14 Republican ones.
To me the people predicting this "permanent" demographic shift to the democrats sound about as delusional as Karl Rove did when he was predicting the same thing for the GOP just 8 years ago.
I doubt what's happened to California is an omen for the rest of America. The Republican party will eventually more to the left with the rest of the country. Otherwise, it won't survive. It may remain more conservative than the democrats, but if there comes a time when almost all Americans support things like gay marriage, the Republican party will not be able to use that as an issue for example. In fact in order for it to remain viable it will have to let people in who also support it.
To me the people predicting this "permanent" demographic shift to the democrats sound about as delusional as Karl Rove did when he was predicting the same thing for the GOP just 8 years ago.
Just saying...
The demographic shifts are actually permanent, in the sense that the Hispanic population will continue to grow for decades, as will the Asian-American population, while the black population will stay about the same proportionally, and whites will shrink. This is all based on projections made by mathematicians and demographers, projections which have been quite accurate for decades now.
You're absolutely right that there's no permanent shift to the Dems. It's quite conceivable that a reformed Republican Party could do well with minorities. But the GOP, in its current incarnation, is at a disadvantage going forward in national elections; put simply, it hasn't diversified quickly enough. One GOP adviser put it bluntly, "This is the last time we can run, at a national level, a strategy that involves focusing almost exclusively on white voters and hoping to get over 60% of them."
We already have that scenario here in Tennessee in our state capitol...except it's the other way around. Here, the GOP just stretched out its majority in both houses of our legislature to filibuster-proof supermajorities and the Democrats on our Capitol Hill are more or less powerless to put up more than token resistance on anything.
I love my state, because there is a lot of beauty and resources here, but as of right now, politics-wise, Nashville/Davidson County and Memphis/Shelby County are specks of blue in a sea of red.
Good points. I think the real omen here is supermajorities...period. In states like CA, MA, NY, IL, that will mean Dems. In states like yours and other southern states, even TX (for a while anyway), plus places like UT, ID, WY, that will mean GOP supermajorities.
The demographic shifts are actually permanent, in the sense that the Hispanic population will continue to grow for decades, as will the Asian-American population, while the black population will stay about the same proportionally, and whites will shrink. This is all based on projections made by mathematicians and demographers, projections which have been quite accurate for decades now.
You're absolutely right that there's no permanent shift to the Dems. It's quite conceivable that a reformed Republican Party could do well with minorities. But the GOP, in its current incarnation, is at a disadvantage going forward in national elections; put simply, it hasn't diversified quickly enough. One GOP adviser put it bluntly, "This is the last time we can run, at a national level, a strategy that involves focusing almost exclusively on white voters and hoping to get over 60% of them."
Oh I fully understand the demographic realities, I'm just saying that nothing in history indicates that any of these growing segments of the population "belong" to the democratic party in perpetuity.
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Frank says: