Pages

Jump to bottom

1 comment

1 watching you tiny alien kittens are  Mon, Nov 26, 2012 10:10:55am

If Congress does nothing and allows all of the "fiscal tightening" measures to go into effect here is what the CBO says will result...

According to CBO’s projections, if all of that fiscal tightening occurs, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) will drop by 0.5 percent in 2013 (as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013)—reflecting a decline in the first half of the year and renewed growth at a modest pace later in the year. That contraction of the economy will cause employment to decline and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.
[Link: www.cbo.gov...]

So yes, recession and higher unemployment. I'm still looking at the full PDF version trying to figure out how they conclude that the GDP would begin to rebound towards positive growth again within the year. That seems overly optimistic to me considering how slow growth already is. Still they conclude that under this scenario it would take until 2018 for unemployment to drop back to 5.5%.

However if Obama were to get what he originally said he wanted...

Extending all expiring tax provisions other than the cut in the payroll tax and indexing the AMT for inflation—except for allowing the expiration of lower tax rates on income above $250,000 for couples and $200,000 for single taxpayers—would boost real GDP by about 1¼ percent by the end of 2013. That effect is nearly as large as the effect of making all of those changes in law and extending the lower tax rates on higher incomes as well (which CBO estimates to be a little less than 1½ percent, as noted above), primarily because the budgetary impact would be nearly as large (and secondarily because the extension of lower tax rates on higher incomes would have a relatively small effect on output per dollar of budgetary cost).

Note that if you read that CBO report carefully it is actually suggesting two scenarios that achieve the highest growth of the GDP. The first is a two year extension of the Bush tax cuts, except for the top bracket, and a like delay of any fiscal tightening measures resulting in 2.7% growth. The second is the same but also extends the payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits resulting in 3.4% growth.

Also note that they state that allowing taxes to rise on the top bracket would only knock less than .025 off of the maximum possible GDP growth. So much for the "Hurting the Job Creators" mantra, the numbers simply don't back that claim up.

However as far as the budget is concerned allowing the top bracket cut to expire does almost as much good by itself as all the other proposed fiscal measures do when combined. How is that possible? It is because the Government gets that money without any corresponding increased costs to itself. No large surge of unemployment benefits, no reduced tax base due to recession, no increase in welfare and medical benefits to the poor, that's how.


This page has been archived.
Comments are closed.

Jump to top

Create a PageThis is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.
Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.
Last updated: 2016-01-01 10:29 am PST
LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds Tweet

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!Register and sign in to a free LGF account before subscribing, and your ad-free access will be automatically enabled.

Donate with
PayPal
Square Cash Shop at amazon
as an LGF Associate!
Recent PagesClick to refresh
Russian Networks Pushing #ReleaseTheMemo Meme WASHINGTON (AP) — Twitter accounts linked to Russian influence operations are pushing a conservative meme related to the investigation of Russian election interference, researchers say. The purported Russian activity involves the hashtag #ReleaseTheMemo, a reference to a secret congressional ...
Thanos
8 hours, 50 minutes ago
Views: 70 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Shout Out Louds - ‘Jumbo Jet’ (Live at WFUV)wfuv.org • Follow @wfuv: ow.ly Shout Out Louds perform "Jumbo Jet" live in Studio A. Recorded 11.1.17. Host: Alisa AliAudio: Brian CullenCameras: Brian Gallagher, Dan Tuozzoli, Tyler Newfell, and Alexandra ReillyEditor: Tyler Newfell & Brian Gallagher
Thanos
17 hours, 33 minutes ago
Views: 86 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Improving the World of Sportsblog.timesunion.com Billy Joel once said, “The good old days weren’t always good, tomorrow’s not as bad as it seems.” From one native Long Islander to another let me just say, “Billy, you may be on to something.” I’m not one ...
rhoffman
2 days, 6 hours ago
Views: 230 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 1
Comments: 0
: 1
First Footage From the New Kodak Super 8 Film Camera Can't wait to get my hands on one. Probably gonna rent 'cause $2500 or more. But what a great look. One of Kodak’s goals is to make this new Kodak Super 8 camera “as easy to use as any ...
Unshaken Defiance
3 days, 20 hours ago
Views: 411 • Comments: 1 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Grandparents Say ‘God Called’ on Perris Couple to Have So Many Children The couple accused of shackling their 13 children in filthy conditions in a Perris home were deeply religious and believed God had called on them to have so many kids, according to the grandparents of the children.David and Louise ...
Thanos
4 days, 9 hours ago
Views: 475 • Comments: 1 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
How Russia Says It Swatted Down a Drone Swarm in Syria On the night of January 5, a swarm of explosives-laden small drones, apparently controlled by Syrian rebels, attacked two Russian bases in western Syria, the Kremlin confirmed on Thursday. Authorities claim that Russian defenses destroyed or disabled all of ...
Thanos
6 days, 7 hours ago
Views: 776 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 4 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Woman at Center of Greitens Story Asks for Privacy; Greitens Asks Lawmakers for Forgiveness The woman’s plea for privacy came as Greitens was contacting state lawmakers to apologize for the scandal, which has stalled action in the Legislature and upended Missouri’s political world. Five Republican lawmakers told the Post-Dispatch that they received calls ...
Thanos
6 days, 8 hours ago
Views: 739 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 3 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Hawaii Missile False Alarm Triggers Shock, Blame and Apologies Residents and visitors in Hawaii have been recalling the shock of a false missile alarm, with many saying they thought they were going to die. The alert of an incoming ballistic missile was sent wrongly on Saturday morning by ...
Thanos
6 days, 8 hours ago
Views: 664 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
L.A. ‘Swatting’ Suspect Charged With Manslaughter in Kansas Over Hoax Call That Led to Fatal Police Shooting he Los Angeles man at the center of what is believed to be the first fatal “swatting” incident in the U.S. has been charged with manslaughter in connection with a hoax phone call that led to a deadly shooting ...
Thanos
1 week ago
Views: 1,019 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0
Marvel Studios’ Black Panther - Rise TV Spot► Subscribe to Marvel: bit.ly Follow Marvel on Twitter: ‪@marvelLike Marvel on FaceBook: ‪facebook.com For even more news, stay tuned to:Tumblr: ‪marvelentertainment.tumblr.comInstagram: instagram.comGoogle+: ‪plus.google.comPinterest: ‪pinterest.com
Thanos
1 week, 4 days ago
Views: 1,278 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
Shares: 0
Comments: 0
: 0