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1 aagcobb  Tue, Dec 4, 2012 6:21:06pm

I don't like Ashley's chances, but no-one else has been able to beat Mitch for the last thirty years, so why not. It should be an entertaining race if she runs, at least.

2 The Ghost of a Flea  Tue, Dec 4, 2012 6:41:44pm

Mitch McConnell is pretty much the king of bringing pork and tax breaks to state power brokers. And the coal companies already hate Ms Judd, up to and include a disgusting ad campaign shaming her for being topless in films. I wish her luck, but her prospects aren't good.

3 Destro  Tue, Dec 4, 2012 8:37:15pm

re: #1 aagcobb

Some of these southern and western states have pockets of progressive culture - Nashville is very hip and so is Austin. Some southern states have shifted cultures like Virginia.

I don't know much about Kentucky but it may be more progressive than we think deep down. So far the south has been under the thumb of post Nixon Strategy Republicans where guns, god and gays and dog whistle racism were wedge issues but those may not be motivating factors these days as they used to.

4 William Barnett-Lewis  Tue, Dec 4, 2012 8:38:18pm

She'll probably get slaughtered. That said, it's an honorable fight and I'll donate if she goes for it. We have to defeat these troglodytes in their own districts to save our nation.

5 Dark_Falcon  Tue, Dec 4, 2012 9:31:45pm

re: #3 Destro

Some of these southern and western states have pockets of progressive culture - Nashville is very hip and so is Austin. Some southern states have shifted cultures like Virginia.

I don't know much about Kentucky but it may be more progressive than we think deep down. So far the south has been under the thumb of post Nixon Strategy Republicans where guns, god and gays and dog whistle racism were wedge issues but those may not be motivating factors these days as they used to.

McConnell doesn't need those things very much. He's got pork, and people are much more likely to vote for the person who brings in jobs and contracts than for someone's beliefs. Judd is also fairly hostile to coal, and that means neither the coal companies nor coal miners will support her. Nor is "progressive" a well-received word in the Bluegrass State. She might have a chance if she was facing some idiot like Todd Akin, but Mitch McConnell is really smart and he's got lots of experience. And with 20 seats to defend, the Democrats will be thinking defense in 2014, not offense.

Ashley Judd won't win if she runs.

6 HappyWarrior  Tue, Dec 4, 2012 9:51:41pm

I wish her all the best but this would be quixotic. But someone's gotta run against McConnell.

7 Destro  Tue, Dec 4, 2012 10:34:50pm

re: #6 HappyWarrior

I wish her all the best but this would be quixotic. But someone's gotta run against McConnell.

re: #5 Dark_Falcon

Someone like her can run to make a point rather than win. She has no political life to lose if she looses and someone has to run against him so why not a woman who can at least get name recognition and celebrity face time on news.

8 wheat-dogghazi  Tue, Dec 4, 2012 11:40:30pm

Judd probably doesn't have a ghost of a chance against McConnell's Republican machine, but she might get enough votes from the metro areas to make a dent in the election. Most Dems in Kentucky are nearly indistinguishable from Republicans -- Yarmuth being a notable exception -- so another question is whether she could survive a primary. That said, I hope she runs. She'd get people in KY talking about real, substantive issues and maybe put the Mitch Machine in the defensive.

9 aagcobb  Wed, Dec 5, 2012 4:18:58am

re: #3 Destro

Some of these southern and western states have pockets of progressive culture - Nashville is very hip and so is Austin. Some southern states have shifted cultures like Virginia.

I don't know much about Kentucky but it may be more progressive than we think deep down. So far the south has been under the thumb of post Nixon Strategy Republicans where guns, god and gays and dog whistle racism were wedge issues but those may not be motivating factors these days as they used to.

I live here, Destro. The local democratic Congressman, Ben Chandler, the grandson of a legendary governor and so conservative that the NRA endorsed him, was just defeated by a young tea bagger after the GOP poured millions into this race. He lost because a bunch of rural democrats added to his district to help him survive voted Tea Party. They is only one progressive island in a red sea in Kentucky, and that's Louisville. Mitch will have a huge warchest to paint Ashley as a typical Hollywood liberal, and to attach her to the President, and she will lose, unfortunately.

10 aagcobb  Wed, Dec 5, 2012 4:21:11am

re: #8 wheat-dogghazi

Judd probably doesn't have a ghost of a chance against McConnell's Republican machine, but she might get enough votes from the metro areas to make a dent in the election. Most Dems in Kentucky are nearly indistinguishable from Republicans -- Yarmuth being a notable exception -- so another question is whether she could survive a primary. That said, I hope she runs. She'd get people in KY talking about real, substantive issues and maybe put the Mitch Machine in the defensive.

If she runs, I think she'll win the primary. No prominent Democrat will want to be the sacrificial lamb; they are maneuvering for the 2015 gubernatorial race.

11 Strangeite  Wed, Dec 5, 2012 6:27:13am

re: #9 aagcobb

I think that is too simple a view of why Chandler lost the race. Sure the inclusion of counties like Wolfe and Menifee in the 6th helped Barr but at the end of the day Chandler lost because he also lost the progressive vote.

Here is a great post by Joe Sonka on why every Democrat "should" vote for Chandler.

Two of my uncles and my grandfather didn't cast votes for Chandler. They didn't vote for Barr, but they couldn't in good conscious vote for Chandler. If you are a Democrat in the 6th and you lose those three votes, you are doing something terribly wrong.

Now on to Judd. I think she might have a chance but she is going to have the KDP throw obstacles in her path. Look at the comments of Adam Edelen (State Auditor and rising young star of the Kentucky Democratic party) and his insistence that Ashley should not run.

Why would the KDP and specifically Edelen not want Judd to run?

Because Edelen wants to run against McConnell even though he knows he has no chance of beating him.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to the gubernatorial election in 2015. Edelen wants to run against McConnell in 2014 to build a team, garner statewide name recognition, develop a extensive donor list, etc., all while running a sickeningly positive campaign.

Then when he is beat in November 2014 (sure he lost, but what a nice guy), it sets him up beautifully for the gubernatorial primary in May of 2015.

12 Dark_Falcon  Wed, Dec 5, 2012 6:46:51am

re: #11 Strangeite

That makes sense. The key to winning is name recognition and organization. The question would be: Would Edelson be willing to go negative on Ashley Judd to win the primary? Because that might cost him with women later.

13 Strangeite  Wed, Dec 5, 2012 7:10:56am

re: #12 Dark_Falcon

That makes sense. The key to winning is name recognition and organization. The question would be: Would Edelson be willing to go negative on Ashley Judd to win the primary? Because that might cost him with women later.

I don't think so. This is why you are seeing comments from people like Greg Stumbo (KY Speaker of the House) and Adam Edelen trying to squash support now.

The KDP has figured the Senate race a lost cause for a long time and planned to use it as I outlined above. An Ashley Judd candidacy complicates matters.

The other wild card is Allison Lundergan-Grimes. She is our newly elected Secretary of State and the daughter of Jerry Lundergan. In Kentucky there are two major factions (in terms of power and money) in the Democratic party. The Lundergan faction and the Beshear faction. They don't really get along.

There has been speculation that Allison might run against McConnell (for the same reasons Edelen wants to run). If, and it is a big if, Ashley Judd decides to run, then I could see Grimes deciding to instead run against Barr in the 6th raising her profile in preparation for a run against Rand Paul in 2016.

The more I think about this, the more I hope Ashley does run. Not because she will win (although I do think she has a better chance than people give her) but because how it rearranges the chess board. The KDP is pretty damn stagnant and her throwing her hat in the ring makes other people try for races that are more achievable. Plus, there is a power vacuum on the Republican side in the state since David Williams (former KY Senate Majority leader and grownup bully) decided to quit the Senate and pump up his pension with a high paying judgeship.


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