This New Poll Shows Democrats Could Actually Have A Shot At Winning The House In 2014
A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows that House Democrats have an early lead over Republicans on a generic 2014 ballot.
When asked which party they would support if an election for the U.S. House of Representatives were held today, 43 percent of those polled said they would support the Democrat to 35 percent supporting the Republican.
A few points:
1) Way to early to be indicative of the 2014 races but an interesting trend. Is there any indication that the Republicans, as a party, have any desire or ability to change these numbers - not if any of the post “RNC Autopsy” are indicative
2) Notice the disparity between what the polls numbers say would be the popular vote if were held today and how many fewer, in proportion the analysis says that the Dems seats in the house that they would win. This is due to the Gerrymandering that the Republicans have accomplished at the state level has tilted the electoral playing field in their direction. If one were then to use an analogy of a lake where the various levels of votes required to a house seat were the rocks in the lake then the Republicans have concentrated all their votes so that they have them in these rocks and islands. So, as the popularity of the Republican party inevitably falls nationally, the analogy is that the lake level will rise, leaving the Republicans with fewer and fewer islands / rocks above the water. This will eventually leave only a few rcoks, fewer islands above the water and and ever more concentrated conservative electorate, and thus tendency, for those Reps to be extremists.
3) Even though it doesn’t look like it not will happen in 2014, most analysts think more like 2020 when demographics changes like those that are happening in TX and FL, when it does it will be very bad of the Republican future. When the POTUS, House and Senate do go Democratic they will do many things to make the dynamic go even more against the Republicans. The Justice Dept will aggressively enforce the Voting Rights Act (even what is left of it after the Conservative Supreme Court weakens it), Abortion Rights, Gay Rights etc. and all of this will unleash a tide of Dems votes at the State Level. They will then appoint less Conservative judges at all levels.
4) Note another part of the poll that says that 61% of Republicans are unhappy with the party. This one fact may hasten the conversion of the Republican Party to a Regional Party and or its death. In Rand Paul runs for the Republican nomination for POTUS there are 2 scenarios; He wins a few very conservative states’ primaries or caucuses (the RNC is trying to eliminate those because they favor Rand) but can’t win enough support to be the nominee, leaves the party and froms a 3rd one; He wins the nomination and thus, as a Republican Candidate becomes the Anti-Romney. The base and some of the other that will hold their noses and vote for him while the Corp big money and defense hawks offer him lukewarm support and he losses. (which anyone will do against Hillary anyway). Then the party is once again broken and is just treading water waiting for the demographic changes tp make it obsolete anyway.