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1 XtremeDave  Sat, Jul 20, 2013 3:06:33pm

While Ted Cruz isn’t Bachmann or Cain, I still don’t think he could win the Presidency unless the Democratic candidate was exceptionally unlikable and weak. Hillary Clinton is neither. Cruz is an asshole, and it takes a lot for Americans to vote for someone like that.

The GOP’s path to winning the White House in 2016 is basically to find another George W Bush. Some outsider who can pledge to “make Washington work again” (aka stop the GOP congressional obstruction), while having the cultural credentials with the GOP base (basically be a Southern Christian) to resist having to constantly placate fears that he’s a RINO, but not so radical that it scares suburban moderates.

This candidate doesn’t exist yet. No congressional Republican can claim they can stop the obstruction (Rubio could try to make the claim if the immigration bill passes, but he’s already been tarred as a RINO, so the racist base doesn’t trust him), and no Governor can meet the other criteria. Chris Christie has already been branded a traitor, and isn’t Southern enough to earn the trust of the base. He would have to spend far too much of the campaign trying to earn their trust and love like Romney did, destroying his credibility with the suburban moderates in swing states. Rick Perry has the credentials with the base, but his anti-abortion crusading has to scare the hell out of moderate voters.

The major question for the 2016 election is the question of race. How many voters wanted to vote for a Democrat, but not President Obama because of his skin color (thereby increasing the votes for Hillary in 2016 automatically), but also how many of the “Obama coalition” (young voters, people of color) will be less motivated to turnout (especially with voting becoming more difficult thanks to the gutting of the Voting Rights Act) and support a non-Obama candidate like Hillary?

2 goddamnedfrank  Sat, Jul 20, 2013 5:49:10pm

Cruz was born in Canada.. The GOP can’t nominate him without shitting all over the arguments the birther’s tried to use against Obama, who was actually born inside the US.

3 subterraneanhomesickalien  Sat, Jul 20, 2013 7:39:05pm

re: #2 goddamnedfrank

You don’t really expect that kind of consistency out of these people do you?

4 aagcobb  Sat, Jul 20, 2013 9:42:11pm

re: #1 XtremeDave

The major question for the 2016 election is the question of race. How many voters wanted to vote for a Democrat, but not President Obama because of his skin color (thereby increasing the votes for Hillary in 2016 automatically), but also how many of the “Obama coalition” (young voters, people of color) will be less motivated to turnout (especially with voting becoming more difficult thanks to the gutting of the Voting Rights Act) and support a non-Obama candidate like Hillary?

I think young women will be super-motivated to get out and vote for Hillary, especially with how the GOP’s war on women has gone into overdrive. Plus, even if minorities aren’t as motivated to vote for Hillary as they were for Obama, there will still be even more of them in the population than there were last year; so their participation rate could drop and they would still at least match the total for 2012. Also the Clintons have always had a good rapport with the African-American community; the Right is still racist (just look at the reaction to the GZ trial) and I bet Hillary selects a minority running mate such as Corey Booker.

5 Skip Intro  Sun, Jul 21, 2013 10:51:32am

re: #2 goddamnedfrank

Cruz was born in Canada.. The GOP can’t nominate him without shitting all over the arguments the birther’s tried to use against Obama, who was actually born inside the US.

There’s a thread on HuffPo today about Cruz, and it’s filled with posters declaring that Cruz is ineligible to be Pres because of where he was born. I can’t tell if they’re RW birthers or LW birthers, but whoever they are, they’re 100% wrong.


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