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1 jvic  Wed, Nov 13, 2013 10:44:12am

1.

And another climate denial “fact” goes down the drain. The pause in warming has been found, and the fact is warming is still happening, and it’s largely on us humans.

Gangbusters! Hurray! Eureka!!

Er, wait…I wish I’d saved the link to the quote (paraphrase): The sound of scientific discovery is usually not “Eureka!”, but “That’s odd…”

My BS detector has turned itself on.

2. The contact person on the eurakalert link is one David Garner, who is a flack Senior Press Officer in the University of York’s Communications Office.

My BS detector is beeping loudly.

3. Unfortunately the paper does not seem available for free online.

But fortunately the authors have created a supplementary website. Here’s a quote:

Did the Met Office get it wrong?

No. The Met Office have been reporting the existence of this bias since 2009, although the issue has not received widespread media coverage. The Met Office also provide uncertainty estimates for their temperature data: our results fall within the 95% confidence intervals of the annual data.

Here’s another:

“No difficult scientific problem is ever solved in a single paper. I don’t expect our work to be the last word on this, but I hope we have advanced the discussion.” - Dr Cowtan

IMHO the whole site is worth viewing.

4. Well, Dr. Cowtan, I can’t give a professional assessment of your work, but you certainly have the look and feel of a serious, scrupulous scientist. I am strongly inclined to believe that you indeed have advanced the discussion. I look forward to seeing how your work is received, and to hearing about your future contributions to the area.

It is a pleasure to withdraw the misgivings expressed earlier in this comment. Best wishes to you as well, Mr. Way.

5. Note to the University of York administration: I see that Kevin Cowtan is “Dr.” Cowtan, not “Professor” Cowtan. If you don’t know what you apparently have there, your rival universities will spot it soon enough.

2 Skip Intro  Wed, Nov 13, 2013 11:13:54am

This is all anecdotal, but I know three things about conditions in the region I live in (CA Central Coast).

1) We haven’t had any significant rainfall (>.1 inch) since December 2012.

2) Total rainfall this season: .05 inch

3) The aquifer supporting the Paso Robles basin has dropped over 100 feet in the last decade, and our lake levels are down to around 20% of capacity.

Oh, and today, like yesterday, and the day before, it’s going to be near 80 degrees, or ten to fifteen degrees hotter than normal.

There may be a more acceptable explanation for this than global climate change, though. A group of local atheists are planning on suing a city here for always having a Christian preacher doing prayers before each city council meeting, so it could be that they’ve just pissed off the Christian god and we’re being punished. I think that’s the way many of the locals are interpreting things.

3 b_sharp  Wed, Nov 13, 2013 11:37:33am

Just a little pedantic correction for this, both wood and dung are part of the normal carbon cycle so burning them doesn’t contribute to the so far 100ppm increase in atmospheric CO2. Both wood and dung have absorbed the carbon released in burning from the atmosphere so by releasing that carbon back to the atmosphere the total added is zero.

On the other hand, carbon added by burning coal and other fossil fuels is bringing forward carbon sequestered more than 65 million years ago. The Earth has averaged about 300ppm of CO2 for the last 6 million years (IMS) so the cycle has been fairly stable. New carbon (to us) has increased that about 33%.

4 Kilroy01  Wed, Nov 13, 2013 2:18:07pm

re: #3 b_sharp

Agreed.

It is all about the sequestered CO2. Cow farts aren’t adding to anything. That CO2 is from the grass and feed the cow ate. Now if your feeding your cows coal or (fossil) oil, then yes there is a problem.

Permafrost melting is a huge source of C02 that we are only now beginning to understand, as it melts.

5 b_sharp  Wed, Nov 13, 2013 3:42:37pm

re: #4 Kilroy01

Agreed.

It is all about the sequestered CO2. Cow farts aren’t adding to anything. That CO2 is from the grass and feed the cow ate. Now if your feeding your cows coal or (fossil) oil, then yes there is a problem.

Permafrost melting is a huge source of C02 that we are only now beginning to understand, as it melts.

Methane as well.


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