Why Obamacare Won’t Spiral Into Fiery, Actuarial Doom
Sarah Kliff, The Washington Post: Why Obamacare Won’t Spiral Into Fiery, Actuarial Doom
If young adults (those under 35) were 25 percent less likely than the rest of the population to sign up for Obamacare, they would represent 33 percent of exchange enrollees — rather than 40 percent. This means there would be fewer young people to subsidize older insurance subscribers. To make up that difference, the experts estimated, insurers would need to increase premiums by a terrifying … 1 percent. Yes, exactly 1 percent.
Levitt, Claxton and Damico also tested a scenario where young adults are half as likely as older shoppers to enroll. In that case, the younger enrollees would make up only a quarter of the exchange market. Premiums would fall 2.5 percent short of covering subscribers
“I had a general sense it wouldn’t be giant, but this was even smaller than we expected,” Levitt says. “It’s not a terrifying number.”