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5 comments

1 jvic  Wed, Jan 8, 2014 2:41:45pm

1. Two reasons not to take the Telegraph piece at face value:

a. If does not provide a link to the underlying research paper.

b. Not a single researcher is identified by name.

(c. No offense to the U of Bordeaux, but I have not heard them mentioned as a hotbed of cutting-edge research.)

It’s not clear whether the inadequacy is in the research or the reporting. Please excuse my lousy eyesight if I’ve overlooked something.

2. That said, the work could be important if it is correct. Hurricane prediction involves computer models that are cumbersome even on supercomputers. The major models do not always agree. As hurricanes make their way up the US East Coast for example, a few tens of miles can be the difference between heavy rain & high wind and a devastating impact.

If the reported research shows a way of demonstrating that a lot of the complexity in those models is irrelevant, that would be important, both to make the computations faster & more responsive to data updates, and to guide attention to understanding the truly significant factors.

2 John Vreeland  Wed, Jan 8, 2014 6:35:40pm

No, the results sound interesting but also absolutely useless. Unless studying soap bubble models suggests other avenues for research, which sometimes happens. But they will not be modeling weather on soap bubbles in order to predict storm paths. The bubble would have to be a meter or two in diameter to get good resolution, and how do you insert the current weather data? What about land masses?

Also, vortices in bubbles do not match storms very well in that storms evolve; vortices do not. Typhoons are powered by heat from ocean waters; vortices are powered by researchers, spinning swizzle sticks while they chat with their friend from the Telegraph.

3 Political Atheist  Thu, Jan 9, 2014 7:55:10am

re: #2 John Vreeland

My suspicion is that there is some underlying math in the vortex behavior that will sharpen up the existing models once properly applied. I’m reminded of fractals and how that math pervades in nature. This finding may be more cool than critical, but worthwhile none the less.

re: #1 jvic

If the reported research shows a way of demonstrating that a lot of the complexity in those models is irrelevant, that would be important, both to make the computations faster & more responsive to data updates, and to guide attention to understanding the truly significant factors.

This is key AFAIK.

4 jvic  Thu, Jan 9, 2014 10:51:07am

re: #3 Political Atheist

re: #1 jvic

If the reported research shows a way of demonstrating that a lot of the complexity in those models is irrelevant, that would be important, both to make the computations faster & more responsive to data updates, and to guide attention to understanding the truly significant factors.

This is key AFAIK.

Data acquisition is expensive and resources are limited. If the reported research is valid, it might help indicate what kinds of long-range and near-term data most improve hurricane models’ accuracy.

5 Origuy  Thu, Jan 9, 2014 11:48:50am

The University of Bordeaux is actually seven different institutions, much like the University of California. Bordeaux 1, in Talance, focuses on math and the physical sciences. I think this is the paper:

By using a half soap bubble heated from below, we obtain large isolated single vortices whose properties as well as their intensity are measured under different conditions. By studying the effects of rotation of the bubble on the vortex properties, we found that rotation favors vortices near the pole. Rotation also inhibits long life time vortices. The velocity and vorticity profiles of the vortices obtained are well described by a Gaussian vortex. Besides, the intensity of these vortices can be followed over long time spans revealing periods of intensification accompanied by trochoidal motion of the vortex center, features which are reminiscent of the behavior of tropical cyclones. An analysis of this intensification period suggests a simple relation valid for both the vortices observed here and for tropical cyclones.


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