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1 ComradeDread  Aug 30, 2014 9:06:19am
Ukraine called on Friday for full membership in NATO

Not going to happen. NATO isn’t going to get dragged into a war with Russia if it can help it.

2 lostlakehiker  Aug 30, 2014 9:21:33am

re: #1 ComradeDread

Not going to happen. NATO isn’t going to get dragged into a war with Russia if it can help it.

Ukraine was unwise even to ask it. The request plays into the hands of Putin, who can now make believe to his domestic audience that this is a real possibility, and thus a danger.

We in the West have a few cards to play, such as economic steps that would be painful to us but also painful to Russia. In biology, threat displays are meaningful only if the threat is expensive to the threatener. It’s the scientific version of “talk is cheap”. So, for instance, we could nerve ourselves to take the hit and supply LNG to Europe to help tide them over as they take the hit this coming winter of reduced or nil deliveries from Russia of natural gas. Concrete steps would have to be taken to make this physically possible.

This would signal serious resolve, and in a way that would be impossible to dismiss as mere bluff.

3 Randall Gross  Aug 30, 2014 12:00:48pm

IF Europe is serious about stopping Putin’s move they will stop it, if not then he will be back to rinse and repeat somewhere else within 2-5 years.

4 Dark_Falcon  Aug 30, 2014 4:10:33pm

re: #2 lostlakehiker

Ukraine was unwise even to ask it. The request plays into the hands of Putin, who can now make believe to his domestic audience that this is a real possibility, and thus a danger.

We in the West have a few cards to play, such as economic steps that would be painful to us but also painful to Russia. In biology, threat displays are meaningful only if the threat is expensive to the threatener. It’s the scientific version of “talk is cheap”. So, for instance, we could nerve ourselves to take the hit and supply LNG to Europe to help tide them over as they take the hit this coming winter of reduced or nil deliveries from Russia of natural gas. Concrete steps would have to be taken to make this physically possible.

This would signal serious resolve, and in a way that would be impossible to dismiss as mere bluff.

The hit here wouldn’t be so bad if we didn’t have to wait till November to move. But as it is, the president doesn’t want to make a major move on LNG, because supplying to Europe without increasing domestic production will increase prices and cost the Democrats moderate votes in the mid-term election. But increasing production means fracking and allowing more of that will anger the environmentalist section of the Democratic base, causing them to withhold get-out-the-vote volunteers the Democrats also need.

As things stand, don’t expect to see action on LNG until after the election. The one thing that might cause it to happen soon after would be if Louisiana ends up in a run-off. Energy production is popular there so Obama could allow increased production and shipping of the surplus abroad and in so doing help Senator Landrieu.


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