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1 klystron  Oct 24, 2014 1:14:59pm

Here is the blog where the lead author posts, along with several relatives (I am assuming?).

He mostly restricts his articles there to tariff issues, etc., but some of the other content on the site moves highly into wingnut territory.

2 freetoken  Oct 24, 2014 1:23:28pm

re: #1 klys

He mostly restricts his articles there to tariff issues, etc., but some of the other content on the site moves highly into wingnut territory.

You mean like his links to WUWT and another denier site, SPPI?

Yeah, I should probably go into more details about the authors, but I didn’t have the time to do a full background check.

Are you suggesting that the WaPo would be promoting closeted right-wingers? Say it isn’t so!

3 Randall Gross  Oct 24, 2014 1:26:02pm

Definitely full metal wingnuts, back during the recession they were promoting tariffs along with their self published books, wotta buncha bozos. Another dead giveaway: they review a book about Ur Religious Conservative Paul Weyrich.
Also active climate science deniers, so no, you can’t trust a thing that they say.

4 freetoken  Oct 24, 2014 1:29:04pm

Yeah, I think it is safe to say that the lead author’s family hangs out with the loonies, given their publications in American Thinker [sic et non]:

idealtaxes.com

We know it is the same Jesse Richman because of the book:

Balanced Trade: Ending the Unbearable Costs of America’s Trade Deficits

Jesse Richman is associate professor of political science at Old Dominion University.

5 freetoken  Oct 24, 2014 1:31:55pm

The more I look at what Richman et. al. have written, it’s beginning to look a bit sciency

6 klystron  Oct 24, 2014 1:33:25pm

re: #5 freetoken

The more I look at what Richman et. al. have written, it’s beginning to look a bit sciency

Braver than me. If he cared about actually showing the results instead of fear-mongering, he would have negotiated open-access with the journal so that the paper was free to read.

7 freetoken  Oct 24, 2014 1:41:45pm

re: #6 klys

The whole proposition that one can claim a certain election was affected when what one has is aggregate data is troublesome. I suppose the journal is a reputable one (even if a bit esoteric and one of a zillion social studies secondary journals), but if they are going to make a claim about the MN election then they’d need to go over the actual votes in MN, and I don’t know if they’ve done that. I don’t know if anyone could, as you need to go over the complete list of who voted in that election in MN, and check the citizenry of each voter, and no one could afford to do that.

8 Rightwingconspirator  Oct 24, 2014 1:59:19pm

Ahh memory lane… The question is not if there are illegal/erroneous votes and voters but if it was close enough for them to matter right?

Published: February 16, 1997
nytimes.com

Four months after the November election, state and Orange County investigators are still looking into charges by former Representative Robert K. Dornan that voter fraud sealed his narrow defeat at the polls.

While the inquiry has so far uncovered dozens of potentially illegal ballots, it is unclear whether there are enough to make up for the 984-vote loss by Mr. Dornan, a Republican, to Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat.

Much of the attention is being focused on voters registered by Hermandad Mexicana Nacional, a local Hispanic rights group. A survey by The Los Angeles Times showed that the organization helped register 172 noncitizens who later voted in the Dornan-Sanchez contest.

9 garzooma  Oct 24, 2014 9:33:42pm

I suppose it’s possible that the authors have uncovered a vast amount of fraudulent registration and voting. But if I’m estimating correctly, they’re proposing that there’s over a million cases of non-citizens registering, each of which is, as per Wikipedia, a federal crime “punishable by imprisonment and/or the initiation of removal proceedings against that individual.” I’ll wait for these result to be reproduced before believing 1.) there are in fact over a million individuals who would take that risk and 2.) that not one of them has ever been caught.

One thing I won’t need to wait for is to point out a flaw in the article. They state “Both sides depend more heavily on anecdotes than data.” Actually, I can’t think of either side depending on anecdotes, heavily or not. The side pushing voter fraud is, as far as I can see, just arguing that it could happen, without a lot of examples, anecdotal or otherwise. The the opposing side is relying on investigations by the FBI and others which say that it just isn’t happening.

One other point — it’s misleading to say that the article is “in the WaPo.” It’s on a blog hosted on the WaPo site. The blog is called “The Monkey Cage”, which maybe should tell us something.

10 freetoken  Oct 24, 2014 9:37:53pm

re: #9 garzooma

One other point — it’s misleading to say that the article is “in the WaPo.” It’s on a blog hosted on the WaPo site. The blog is called “The Monkey Cage”, which maybe should tell us something.

Maybe. However, since WaPo promotes “Monkey Cage” and have their mast-head/nameplate on it, it is part of the electronic version of what I call “WaPo”. “Monkey Cage” is thus another form of an editorial section.

11 Islamo-Masonic Vourdalak  Oct 25, 2014 12:01:19am

Without looking into the articles: what’s the mechanism that would allow a non-citizen to vote? Does it always involve forgery of some papers?

12 freetoken  Oct 25, 2014 12:10:05am

re: #11 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

The authors claim that non-citizens have been registering to vote.

13 Islamo-Masonic Vourdalak  Oct 25, 2014 12:29:41am

re: #12 freetoken

The authors claim that non-citizens have been registering to vote.

Well, again, I’m not really familiar with the procedure. I assume it involves showing some sort of evidence you’re a citizen.

14 freetoken  Oct 25, 2014 1:41:14am

re: #13 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

Well, again, I’m not really familiar with the procedure. I assume it involves showing some sort of evidence you’re a citizen.

In many places in the US, to register to vote you just fill in a form and mail it to the local county office. Forms will usually ask if you are a citizen, over 17 years old, etc.

15 Islamo-Masonic Vourdalak  Oct 25, 2014 1:44:16am

re: #14 freetoken

OK, in your estimation, what would be a reasonable measure to prevent a non-citizen from voting?

16 freetoken  Oct 25, 2014 3:47:02am

re: #15 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

OK, in your estimation, what would be a reasonable measure to prevent a non-citizen from voting?

That is a good question.

Society is underpinned by the trust we have for each other.

Other than some Orwellian scheme of technology (DNA ?), we probably will never be sure that somebody is who they say they are.

17 Islamo-Masonic Vourdalak  Oct 25, 2014 3:49:48am

re: #16 freetoken

It’s not a either/or proposition, IMHO. If someone wants to rob a bank, they may try and succeed, but that’s not a reason to leave the bank vault door open at night…

18 freetoken  Oct 25, 2014 3:50:31am

I edited out the “wingnut” part in the title because I am not so certain about the other two authors. AFAIK, they’re just the standard, run-of-the-mill academics looking to get published.

The journal in which the paper is published does not have a very high impact factor. However, this paper will probably be referenced many times, and that may be why it got published.

19 freetoken  Oct 25, 2014 3:51:39am

re: #17 Islamo-Masonic Conspirator

There is no way to know if a person is telling the truth without some sort of test, though.

I think most Americans would find the sufficiently strong tests to assure honesty to be oppressive.

20 Islamo-Masonic Vourdalak  Oct 25, 2014 3:53:31am

re: #19 freetoken

Well, I find it problematic and think one shouldn’t rely merely on trust when voting. My opinion, and let’s leave it at that.

21 garzooma  Oct 25, 2014 6:04:22am

So apparently there are some examples of non-citizens registering:

According to a 2007 report written by Minnite for Project Vote, “government records show that only 24 people were convicted of or pleaded guilty to illegal voting between 2002 and 2005, an average of eight people a year. This includes 19 people who were ineligible to vote, five because they were still under state supervision for felony convictions, and 14 who were not U.S. citizens; and five people who voted twice in the same election, once in Kansas and again in Missouri.”

and

The New York Times notes that, in 2011, “New Mexico’s wasteful investigation of 64,000 ‘suspicious’ voter registrations found only 19 cases of voters who may have been noncitizens.”

It’s hard to see how you would get to over a million non-citizen voters 14, 19 cases at a time.

22 Randall Gross  Oct 27, 2014 5:49:18am

and… right on cue:

donotlink.com
National review

23 akcita  Oct 28, 2014 12:31:56pm

The data comes from a Harvard/MIT election research organization. A 50,000 respondent sample is hardly insignificant.

I find your own response to be irrelevant to the point made by the Academics. You push for an improved registration process and decry any voter ID as ineffectual without data to support, and then engage in ad hominems against the academics who interpreted the Harvard data.

It is either their or it isn’t, and apparently it is. Could the respondents be lying? Sure, but if they were able to verify that they voted, then it is even more convincing. Unfortunately such records are not uniformly available.

If they applied a percentage corrected for non-citizen distributions it may not be far off, but individual measures by state would have had to had been considered in terms of promoting or disincentivizing immigrants from voting regardless of whether they were here leaglly or otherwise.

I don’t see the issue with the study that you seem to.

24 klystron  Oct 28, 2014 12:35:38pm

re: #23 akcita

The data comes from a Harvard/MIT election research organization. A 50,000 respondent sample is hardly insignificant.

I find your own response to be irrelevant to the point made by the Academics. You push for an improved registration process and decry any voter ID as ineffectual without data to support, and then engage in ad hominems against the academics who interpreted the Harvard data.

It is either their or it isn’t, and apparently it is. Could the respondents be lying? Sure, but if they were able to verify that they voted, then it is even more convincing. Unfortunately such records are not uniformly available.

If they applied a percentage corrected for non-citizen distributions it may not be far off, but individual measures by state would have had to had been considered in terms of promoting or disincentivizing immigrants from voting regardless of whether they were here leaglly or otherwise.

I don’t see the issue with the study that you seem to.

Welcome, hatchling.

It’s rather difficult to assess how well done the study is because they didn’t see fit to provide open access to it (this can be done, generally). Have you been able to read the study yourself and can you provide a nice breakdown of the statistical tools they used for their extrapolations to the level that they wrote about in the blog post?

Thanks.


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