Interesting new Wiki articles on the very high level Sigma Wargames run by the Pentagon in the 1960’s. The second of the series, the Sigma I-63 wargame, forecast the results of an intervention in Vietnam as:
Sigma I-63 was played in Spring 1963. It was held with senior level officials setting policy for the Red and Blue Teams. Working level officials were the actual players.
Ambassador William H. Sullivan was a participant. His recollection is that Sigma I-63 ended in a fictional 1970 with 500,000 American troops locked in a stalemate in Vietnam, and conscription riots in the United States.
The games in 64, 65 & so on didn’t get any more rosy. Sigma II-64 even predicted accurately that heavy use of air power would only stiffen the resolve of the North Vietnamese.
Sad how reality can be right there in our face yet we refuse to accept it…