Why Temperatures Never Go Up in Straight Lines
0:00 Stuart Varney, Fox News
1:35 My video “The Evidence for Climate Change Without Computer Models or the IPCC” is at Youtube Video
4:06 Exchange with PrairieDoggedRez is on the forum at
4:40 The RSS trend line is calculated through an interactive graph at woodfortrees.org. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this site, and neither does the site’s owner (in a disclaimer.) I use it simply because this is the source PDR uses.
10:04 - Decadal temp graph from “The recent pause in global warming (2): What are the potential causes?” — Met Office, July 2013
14:14 - Graph of CO2 correlation from “Climate Sensitivity during the Phanerozoic: Lessons for the Future” - Royer, 2009.
So here are the notes I alluded to at the end of the video. Remember, you have to explain all the things carbon dioxide explains:
1) How did the Earth escape from its ice-bound conditions during the pre-Cambrian?
2) Why was the Earth much hotter than today during the Cambrian, even though solar output was much weaker.
3) What caused past temperature swings lasting millions of years, and why does CO2 correlate so well with these temperature swings over the last 500 million years?
4) What caused the ice sheets to melt during the most recent deglaciation?
5) What has caused temperatures to rise so steeply in the last 40 years?
6) Why have temperatures been hitting record highs over the last 18 years, even though all other factors have been conspiring to push temperatures down? What’s keeping them up?
And please don’t post these, for the reasons given:
Galactic rays did it
This is a hypothesis expounded by Nur Shaviv, so read Shaviv’s paper. Even if the hypothesis is sound, galactic rays work on periods of around 20 million years, not on decadal timescales, and Shaviv says they don’t explain recent warming (#5 on the list). Neither do they explain deglaciation (#4) or the escape from snowball Earth (#1).
Cosmic rays did it
Cosmic rays become more intense during weak periods of solar activity every 11 years. The hypothesis is that they seed clouds, and that clouds cool the Earth down. Whether or not they do seed clouds has still not been shown. But even if they do, clouds have a warming as well as a cooling effect, and most research shows their overall effect is neutral. And of course cosmic rays don’t explain the recent rise in temperature (#5), because solar output has been getting weaker, so there should be more cosmic rays and that is supposedly another cooling factor. Yet the Earth is not cooling. And cosmic rays don’t explain past temperature swings (#3) or the escape from snowball Earth (#1) or deglaciation (#4) etc.
The sun did it
Clearly not. The Earth was much hotter than today at a time when solar output was much weaker (#2 on the list). The sun can’t explain the escape from snowball Earth (#1) or the swings in temperature over the last 500 million years (#3) or the recent rise in temperature (#5). And while slightly greater insolation explains the spark that started deglaciation, it doesn’t explain what amplified this warming to melt a chunk of ice the size of a continent (#4).
God did it
Sign of desperation.