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1
Danack  Nov 12, 2015 • 5:31:08pm

I don’t think either Carson or Trump will maintain their leads. Although they have kept out in front for a long time (much longer than I was expecting), I think that Carson will start to lose supporters as he continues to say stupid stuff and Trump will get either get bored of all the work needed to be done around January/February.

Even if Trump stays in, he seemed to have a limit of 30% support. I can’t see many of the religious values voters who are backing Carson switching to him.

On the other hand…..Ted Cruz is well positioned to pickup voters from both Carson (as his father is a preacher and says similarly crazy things to what Carson says) and from Trump as he’s got the stigginit to the establishment factor well baked in.

Another way at looking at the situation is just trying to guess how many voters there are who are supporting a candidate due to either an “Anti-Establishment” vote, a “Religion” vote or any other reason.

I did a basic spreadsheet where I guessed the values for each of the candidates.

Putting that against what their actual polling was on the 3rd of Nov, the percentage of voters for each group is:
Anti-Establishment 41.5%
Religion 23%
Other 25.6%

(total isn’t 100% due to undecideds)

This is really bad news for Rubio. Even when Jeb? Bush drops out of the race, and all of the other candidates that aren’t anti-establishment or religious votes drop out, he’s unlikely to get much more than 25%.

There’s no way Cruz or Trump would drop out just because another candidate had 25%….from previous years, someone needs to start getting 50% in primaries to start wrapping up the race.

It doesn’t seem that hard to imagine a situation in February of Trump on 25%, Cruz on 30% and Rubio on 20%, with the rest split amongst undecideds and the hangers on……in that scenario there would be some very interesting conversations between Trump and the other two about what Trump dropping out and endorsing one of the others would be worth….

2
Big Beautiful Door  Nov 12, 2015 • 5:41:40pm

I hope that Cruz is the nominee. He is the Tea Party personified, and it would be very difficult for them to argue that, if he was the nominee, he wasn’t conservative enough or that he didn’t stand on conservative principles.

3
KGxvi  Nov 12, 2015 • 5:49:18pm

re: #1 Danack

The thing is, even if Trump tops out at 30%, that’s going to be the high water mark through the proportional states. And if the field is large enough come March 15, it may well even be enough to win those states that are winner take all. If he’s suddenly sitting at 500 delegates, things become much harder to push him aside.

Maybe you’re right, maybe Trump gets bored, but many thought he’d have been bored by now, and he’s still going strong.

As for Carson, his contingent doesn’t seem to mind him saying stupid things. As a wise man once said, “you can’t fix stupid.” But his supporters don’t seem to mind. And just as with Trump, Carson’s support might top out at 25%, but in a fractured field, that’s enough to win more delegates than most everyone else.

Pat Buchanan won some delegates in 1992, running against an incumbent. But in a two person race, having 30% of the vote in most places meant nothing because the other 70% was going for GHW Bush. Unless and until the other half of voters rally to one of the other members of the field, we have to take Trump and Carson seriously. Which is scary.

4
Mich-again  Nov 12, 2015 • 7:28:39pm

The possibility is very real. Trump is playing the part of the Pied Piper and the GOP base are the people of Hamelin. They are willfully ignorant and under-educated and many of them will support whichever candidate is leading in the polls because to them politics are like football.

5
freetoken  Nov 12, 2015 • 9:56:53pm
“Is It Time To Consider The Probability of a Trump Nomination?”

Shall we be Bayesian about all this?

6
Danack  Nov 13, 2015 • 7:31:22am

re: #3 KGxvi

Maybe you’re right, maybe Trump gets bored, but many thought he’d have been bored by now, and he’s still going strong.

You, like, totally jinxed it dude.

As Donald Trump took the stage in a community college theater on Thursday night, something was off.

The usually punctual executive was nearly 40 minutes late. His voice was hoarse, his hair mussed, his tone defensive. He promised to take questions from the audience but instead launched into a 95-minute-long rant that at times sounded like the monologue of a man grappling with why he is running for president — and if it’s really worth it or not. Even for a candidate full of surprises, the speech was surprising.

….

At first, the audience was quick to laugh at Trump’s sharp insults and applaud his calls to better care for veterans, replace the Affordable Care Act and construct a wall along the Mexican border. But as the speech dragged on, the applause came less often and grew softer. As Trump attacked Carson using deeply personal language, the audience grew quiet, a few shaking their heads. A man sitting in the back of the auditorium loudly gasped.

While he’s a great performer, he’s not used to having to perform all the time.

The pace of campaigning he needs to do is going to increase a bit before Christmas, trail off over Christmas and then in the New Year he’s going to have to be performing for the campaign day in day out for months.

He’s got no vision for why he wants to be President to push him forward - it’s just going to get to be completely not fun for him, and once it’s been not fun for weeks in a row he’s going to be looking for a justification for quitting, in a way that avoids making him look like a ‘loser’.

7
S'latch  Nov 13, 2015 • 12:17:55pm

Is It Time To Consider The Probability of a Trump Nomination?

Maybe not so much right now.


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