Pages

Jump to bottom

8 comments

1
otoc  Apr 28, 2016 • 3:43:22am

Nice job cd1177. On the point of consensus, a paper recently came out that supported cook and trashed the sceptic view that there is none. There is consensus and the only argument against uses flawed methods.

2
Big Beautiful Door  Apr 28, 2016 • 4:34:46am

Excellent article. Kudos.

3
KerFuFFler  Apr 28, 2016 • 9:01:09am

The deniers seems to think that there is no point paying attention to this risk unless we are 100 % certain (as opposed to 97%) that global warming is real. What other risk would we consider treating this way? Is Russian roulette a safe bet because only one of the six chambers is loaded?

If you were driving and saw a sign that a bridge had a 5% chance of collapsing, would you cross the bridge rather than taking the detour? So, you might if you were in a big hurry in an emergency. But would you if your kid was in the backseat? With climate change, all our kids are in the backseat.

4
CriticalDragon1177  Apr 28, 2016 • 10:08:38am

re: #1 otoc

Nice job cd1177. On the point of consensus, a paper recently came out that supported cook and trashed the sceptic view that there is none. There is consensus and the only argument against uses flawed methods.

Sorry, but could you reword that last sentence. I think I might be having some trouble understanding what you meant.

5
CriticalDragon1177  Apr 28, 2016 • 10:12:12am

re: #3 KerFuFFler

The deniers seems to think that there is no point paying attention to this risk unless we are 100 % certain (as opposed to 97%) that global warming is real. What other risk would we consider treating this way? Is Russian roulette a safe bet because only one of the six chambers is loaded?

If you were driving and saw a sign that a bridge had a 5% chance of collapsing, would you cross the bridge rather than taking the detour? So, you might if you were in a big hurry in an emergency. But would you if your kid was in the backseat? With climate change, all our kids are in the backseat.

Good point! That’s a very dangerous attitude to have when we have overwhelming evidence that we are in serious trouble. Just about any reason we had to doubt the idea that pumping all that carbon dioxide into the atmosphere would cause global warming is gone.

6
CriticalDragon1177  Apr 28, 2016 • 10:15:26am

Another potential problem caused by climate change that I forgot to mention is that due to sea level rise, some Island nations may even cease to exist within the next few centuries, if we don’t stop this.

Will Pacific Island Nations Disappear as Seas Rise? Maybe Not
news.nationalgeographic.com

I should have brought that at some point, since it only makes my case even stronger, that this is a real problem, and we have to do something about it.

7
otoc  Apr 30, 2016 • 3:44:05am

re: #4 CriticalDragon1177

Sorry, but could you reword that last sentence. I think I might be having some trouble understanding what you meant.

My apologies for not being clear. I needed to wait until I had the time to sit at a computer to pull some links. A hard task when answering on an iPhone.

The skeptics use Tol as “proof” that there is no consensus. A more recent paper from Cook (2016) supports the Cook (2013) study you mentioned while continuing to trash Tol’s study. So there is consensus. The only argument against consensus uses flawed methods.

Research shows — yet again — that there’s no scientific debate about climate change

While the consensus has been documented by many studies over the years, the most widely cited is a 2013 paper led by John Cook of the University of Queensland’s Global Change Institute. The study examined thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers and found that, among those papers that took a position on the causes of climate change, 97.1 percent of them supported the idea that global warming is caused by humans.

Earlier this year, however, University of Sussex professor Richard Tol published a comment criticizing the 2013 study and suggesting that 97 percent may be too high a figure. In his comment, Tol returned to some of the published research on the consensus and re-examined the accompanying data, noting that Cook’s paper did not include studies that took no position on climate change, and that surveys including scientists who don’t study climate tend to have somewhat lower rates of consensus.

After examining the comment, however, Cook and a team of other researchers concluded that these arguments were problematic at best. In their new paper, they re-examined the published literature on the climate consensus, finding that the 97 percent calculation remains a robust and well-supported statistic.

“The biggest flaw [in Tol’s argument] is that he misrepresents many of the other studies on the consensus,” said Cook, lead author on the new paper.

“He tries to argue that our paper is an outlier — is different to all the other studies in their estimates of the expert consensus,” Cook said. “But the way he arrives at the expert consensus is by using groups that include non-experts, which is a classic technique to try to obtain lower estimates of the scientific consensus.”

It’s true that scientists who don’t study climate also don’t accept the scientific consensus as strongly. But this variability is to be expected when non-experts are included, the authors of the new paper explain.

8
CriticalDragon1177  Apr 30, 2016 • 5:07:46am

re: #7 otoc

Okay, thanks. That’s kind of what I thought you were saying, but it wasn’t clear to me.


This page has been archived.
Comments are closed.

Jump to top

Create a PageThis is the LGF Pages posting bookmarklet. To use it, drag this button to your browser's bookmark bar, and title it 'LGF Pages' (or whatever you like). Then browse to a site you want to post, select some text on the page to use for a quote, click the bookmarklet, and the Pages posting window will appear with the title, text, and any embedded video or audio files already filled in, ready to go.
Or... you can just click this button to open the Pages posting window right away.
Last updated: 2016-01-01 10:29 am PST
LGF User's Guide RSS Feeds Tweet

Help support Little Green Footballs!

Subscribe now for ad-free access!Register and sign in to a free LGF account before subscribing, and your ad-free access will be automatically enabled.

Donate with
PayPal
Square Cash Shop at amazon
as an LGF Associate!
Recent PagesClick to refresh
ROXY MUSIC - RE-MAKE/RE-MODEL LIVE at the APOLLO 2001 Cpl593h ROXY MUSIC - RE-MAKE/RE-MODEL LIVE AT THE APOLLO 2001Original by the first Roxy Music Album , the very first song , 1972lyrics below :I tried, but I could not find a wayLooking back, all I did was look awayNext ...
Thanos
11 hours, 17 minutes ago
Views: 124 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
“Midnight Picnic Near the Ocean” - Forest BaileyRecorded live at Snaggy Mountain in Burnsville North Carolina. 24-bit Studio Master digital download available at: forestbaileymusic.com Buy/Listen:Spotify: open.spotify.comApple Music: music.apple.com Visit Forest BaileyWebsite: forestbaileymusic.comInstagram: instagram.comFacebook: facebook.comYouTube: youtube.comBandsintown: bandsintown.com
Thanos
1 day, 17 hours ago
Views: 224 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
#Thegreatpoolpondconversion - 191014After three weeks of meh pictures and invisible progress, we were determined to have something to photograph today. And we were eager to start on the upper shelf. We were close, but not quite there, and we were determined! To ...
DangerMan
5 days, 18 hours ago
Views: 391 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 3
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Jack Klatt - Highway Lines (Live at Radio Heartland)Jack Klatt performs 'Highway Lines' from his 2019 album, 'It Ain't The Same,' live in the studio of Radio Heartland at The Current.
Thanos
1 week ago
Views: 366 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 2 • Share to Facebook
Brittany Howard Performing ‘13th Century Metal’ Live on KCRW Brittany Howard's solo debut album Jaime puts her powerhouse vocals on full display. It also takes us front and center to her very personal journey of loss, love and self-discovery. We're thrilled to welcome her back to KCRW to ...
Thanos
1 week, 2 days ago
Views: 558 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
(15) Rodrigo Y Gabriela - Electric Soul (Live on KEXP) kexp.org presents Rodrigo y Gabriela performing "Electric Soul" live in the KEXP gathering space. Recorded July 14, 2019. Host: Stevie ZoomAudio Engineers: Kessiah Gordon & Kevin SuggsAudio Mixer: David MarchantCameras: Jim Beckmann, Alaia D'Alessandro, Luke Knecht & Justin WIlmoreEditor: ...
Thanos
1 week, 2 days ago
Views: 577 • Comments: 1 • Rating: 1
Tweets: 2 • Share to Facebook
Fresh Air (Remastered) Quicksilver Messenger Service Provided to YouTube by Universal Music Group Fresh Air (Remastered) · Quicksilver Messenger Service Classic Masters ℗ 2001 Capitol Records, LLC Released on: 2007-01-01 Producer: Quicksilver Messenger ServiceStudio Personnel, Mastering Engineer: Robert VosgienComposer: Jesse Oris Farrow Auto-generated by YouTube. ...
Thanos
1 week, 2 days ago
Views: 635 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 2
Tweets: 2 • Share to Facebook
Jon Anderson - Song of SevenFrom the 1980 album "Song of Seven".
Thanos
1 week, 4 days ago
Views: 663 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 1 • Share to Facebook
#Thegreatpoolpondconversion - 191006 Today we have to take a few steps back in explanation. The pond is going to have three levels. Sort of an upside down ziggurat. The lowest level, in the center we call ‘the channel’. After the liner is ...
DangerMan
1 week, 6 days ago
Views: 777 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 4
Tweets: 0 • Share to Facebook
Jon Anderson - Change We MustFrom the 1994 album "Change We Must".
Thanos
2 weeks, 1 day ago
Views: 840 • Comments: 0 • Rating: 0
Tweets: 2 • Share to Facebook