There Are More White Voters Than People Think.
Nate Cohn, New York Times: There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That’s Good News for Trump.
Hispanic voters played only a modest role in Mr. Romney’s defeat. They cost him Florida — a must-win state for Republicans, but also the closest contest. Elsewhere, Mr. Obama would have easily survived even if Mr. Romney had equaled George W. Bush’s 2004 share of Hispanic voters.
All of this is good news for a Republican who intends to win with greater strength among white working-class voters, like Mr. Trump.
There is a downside for him. The lower turnout among Hispanic and young voters implies that it’s possible — even easy — to imagine a huge increase in Hispanic and youth turnout in 2016. And Mr. Obama’s strength among Northern white voters raises doubts about whether the Republicans, including Mr. Trump, can assume that white working-class voters are receptive to conservative candidates.
The best case for Mr. Trump is that white Northerners reluctantly backed Mr. Obama because Mr. Romney was successfully caricatured as a rapacious plutocrat.
Yet it’s hard to argue that the attacks on Bain Capital were responsible for Mr. Obama’s gains among young and college-educated white voters. These voters moved decisively in Mr. Obama’s direction, perhaps in part because of cultural issues. If that’s right, Mr. Trump will be hard pressed to reverse Mr. Obama’s gains — and there’s plenty of evidence he could slip further.
It’s interesting and hopeful to find out that President Obama was re-elected with much greater white support than was thought based on the exit polling. I hope this means that Trump’s openly racist appeal will backfire by repelling more voters of all races than it brings him in whites.