Survey Says: Suppression
The New York Times highlights data I download every morning once early voting begins:
There also aren’t many states with better election data than North Carolina. The state releases detailed, individual-level information on every voter in the state. It even publishes a daily account of who has voted early, either in person or by mail.
It’s terribly useful data. The Times is conducting an experiment in projecting results from the party affiliation of those who have already voted and from its Upshot/Siena survey:
Already, about 812,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,425,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 22 percentage points – among people who have already voted.