First of all, I think Apple was hoping for 5% of the entire cell phone market, not the smartphone market. When they release the first iPhone, there was a very small Smartphone market. So hoping for 5% would be a really tiny number. There is a huge difference between the smartphone market, and the “all cellphones” market. In 2010/2011, the iPhone has a market share of barely 4% of all cellphones. Still a great number, but not “exceeded their wildest expectations.”

I think you are missing (purposely?) what the trend is saying. Android phones have been out for less time. 500,000 new Android phones are being activated every day. A huge number of people have 3 year contracts with AT&T that are coming up in 2012. If 2011 is any indicator, many are going to move to Android.

It is not a 2-3 year race, it is a marathon. Apple dismisses Android at their own risk.