This is nuts, alright. Each of the nations concerned would do best to back down. It’s just not worth it.

But China most of all. China can back down without strategic consequences, because China’s power is relatively greater in the commercial realm, and is growing steadily. Why rock the boat? Every geopolitical thing that China needs becomes easier to get by the year, because of her increasing economic strength and the military bump that comes with that.

What China does not need is a symbolic victory, assuming it works out that way, that would alarm Japan and the rest of her neighbors and set them to work building stronger militaries of their own. That would harden attitudes among her neighbors.

And what if it didn’t work out that way? Pandora’s box then flies open.