538 has something for everybody.

Polls-plus forecast
What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8

Hillary Clinton
61.7%
Donald Trump
38.3%

Polls-only forecast
What polls alone tell us about Nov. 8

Hillary Clinton
53.3%
Donald Trump
46.7%

Now-cast
Who would win an election today

Hillary Clinton
48.4%
Donald Trump
51.6%