re: #113 Nyet

538 has something for everybody.

Polls-plus forecast
What polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8

Hillary Clinton
61.7%
Donald Trump
38.3%

Polls-only forecast
What polls alone tell us about Nov. 8

Hillary Clinton
53.3%
Donald Trump
46.7%

Now-cast
Who would win an election today

Hillary Clinton
48.4%
Donald Trump
51.6%

I’ve been watching the trends. Earlier in the week, Trump got as high as 55% in the nowcast, but the last couple of days he’s been gradually dropping so that the race is basically even. Next week Hillary should get her bounce. Then by around Labor Day things should settle down and we’ll have a better sense of how the race actually stands going into the final two months when lots of people start paying attention.