It’s hard not to get nervous in these early stages, but really, it’s the same way every time—essentially 45/45 until after the conventions. People are just not paying attention. Up until then, the poll questions, however they’re phrased, amount to “Whose name did you hear last?”

This time may be unique for name recognition even before the conventions. “Trump? Yeah, I’ve heard of him. Why not?” Now the public is beginning to hear a few things the candidates are saying, and they’re not liking what they hear from Trump. Honestly, I think he’s got noplace to go but down.

His real followers are going to get more and more extreme as the campaign goes along. It’s like bringing a pimple to a head. When it bursts, it’s not going to be pretty. I expect inept outbursts of violence—lots of them. Ideally, they will discredit the right for 50 years the way the chaos of the 60s did the left.

Or more likely, they’ll be back in 2018, crazier than ever….