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Mark Knopfler - Going Home: Theme of the Local Hero (17th Oct 2020)

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Dangerman10/26/2020 8:31:36 am PDT

re: #128 NO SMOCKING GUN!

For anyone worried that the race may be “tightening”, Trump’s odds of winning on fivethirtyeight.com remain at 12%, the same as on October 17. In contrast, on October 31, 2016, 8 days out from the election, the race had been tightening for two weeks, and Trump’s odds had already improved to 25%, on their way to peaking at 35%. Wikileaks and James Comey aren’t riding to Trump’s rescue, and he now has a record of profound failure he can’t defend with lies.

further:

biden has a bit larger and way more consistent leads in mich, Wisc, and penna, than hillary did

you’re right, there won’t be a ‘comey’

and remember the 2016 ‘surprise’ was everyone assuming clinton would win those three and no one was polling there. there’s lots of polling there this time, and there’s also the correction for level of education

there should be no ‘surprises’

otoh, there are still lots of ways other than merely counting to see who got the most votes, that they can muck up the election. no polling can account for that