re: #139 NO SMOCKING GUN!

It’s one of the problems with Nate’s model: it has built in preference for regions/sets-of-states to be more sensitive to a few select outcomes in particular states, based on past performances.

Now the past influences us today. But the usual disclaimer forced upon the financial industry is past performances do not guarantee future results, and that ought to be added in heavy doses to the 538 model.

re: #140 Belafon

See above. The model appears to also link historically the migration into Iowa, as the population of Iowa was early on settled by people from Ohio, whose families a generation earlier came from PA. Demographical connections tied to history.