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Latest MU poll shows Walker leading Burke among likely voters

Republican Gov. Scott Walker leads Democratic challenger Mary Burke 50% to 43% among likely voters in a new survey by the Marquette University Law School.

That represents a change from other surveys in recent weeks — including a Marquette poll two weeks ago — showing the race essentially tied.

The latest survey underscores just how much turnout matters to the outcome of the contest for governor. Walker’s gains were not among the broader population of registered voters, but among those who said they were certain to vote on Nov. 4. That’s the group defined as “likely voters” in Marquette’s polling.

In the new poll, 93% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats say they are certain to vote, reflecting a potential turnout gap between the parties.