re: #131 NO SMOCKING GUN!

Nate Silver would say it makes sense because Pa and Az are much more likely to be tipping point states than Ohio. IOW, if Trump loses Ohio, he’s already lost the election anyway.

strictly by polls and the EC and ignoring election shenanigans, as im reading it, on electoral-vote.com tipping point state page:

IA and AK are within 2 points so MOE either way - virtual ties.
TX and NC are within 1, so ditto moreso.
If trump doesnt hold all 4 he’s toast.

If he does, THEN he’s got to get through GA and FL before AZ (or NV) would even start to matter.

THEN to even approach 270 he needs GA, FL, AZ, NH, NV and OH

In PA Biden is +5%.
WI, MI, MN are 6 points or more right now.
Everyone’s committed. It’s fantasy to think he could swing 5+% from Biden in the amount of time left. (imo)