re: #146 Jay C

Except IMO, the big problem with Bernie’s “overestimated” appeal, is that said overestimation is mainly exhibited online: where, as we saw in 2016, efforts by a relatively small group of *activists* (OK, also “malevolent hackers”, but the difference can be slight sometimes) can have an extremely multiplied effect. Enough to skew intraparty opinion in ways which might not reflect actual political reality. Especially as the hardcore Berners seem to be as much of an obsessive personality-cult as the Trumprrhoids.

He’s got a few things going against him this time:
1. He can no longer be the “not Hillary” candidate. Everyone’s a not-Hillary candidate.
2. I think some of his lack of appeal is because he couldn’t influence his “supporters” in 2016.
3. 2020 isn’t 2016. We’re not coming off of a popular Democratic president. We have Trump.
4. The nominees he’s running aginst now offer way more than a binary choice. All of his strength (white male) are covered by other candidates, and lot’s of people have a candidate that is concerned about their issues, meaning they are more likely to participate than before.