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The Bob Cesca Podcast: Author Greg Mitchell

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SandwichKed7/09/2020 5:14:14 pm PDT

Another 60k day. That was pretty much expected.

What I’m not liking is that deaths are definitely a solid bump up this week over the previous week’s pattern. Tues/Wed I figured could just be catch-up reporting from the holiday weekend, but today’s is over 900, and that puts us back to where things were at the end of May.

There’s been a lot of chatter about the lag between cases reported and deaths reported. Back at the beginning of all this, there was some thought that you’d have a week lag, which turned into conventional wisdom that it’s a two-week lag. Lately I’ve been hearing relatively serious people saying that it’s three, or four, or six (!?!) week lag between cases and deaths.

Let’s hope that it’s not four+. At two weeks lag, the current case rate would (in a very simple analysis) sustain about 1100 deaths a day. At three weeks lag it would be 1500ish, and at 4 or more it’s likely to be touching 2k.