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Wingnuts in Despair: Glenn Beck, Robert Stacy McCain

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ausador11/07/2012 4:55:27 pm PST

Dick Morris returns from the missing…

Why I Was Wrong

I’ve got egg on my face. I predicted a Romney landslide and, instead, we ended up with an Obama squeaker.

The key reason for my bum prediction is that I mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels. Didn’t happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are here to stay. And, with them, a permanent reshaping of our nation’s politics.

In 2012, 13% of the vote was cast by blacks. In 04, it was 11%. This year, 10% was Latino. In ’04 it was 8%. This time, 19% was cast by voters under 30 years of age. In ’04 it was 17%. Taken together, these results swelled the ranks of Obama’s three-tiered base by five to six points, accounting fully for his victory.

I derided the media polls for their assumption of what did, in fact happen: That blacks, Latinos, and young people would show up in the same numbers as they had in 2008. I was wrong. They did.

But the more proximate cause of my error was that I did not take full account of the impact of hurricane Sandy and of Governor Chris Christie’s bipartisan march through New Jersey arm in arm with President Obama. Not to mention Christe’s fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership.

It made all the difference.

Lol…”See! My prediction of a Romney landslide was not wrong because I was utterly mistaken about those demographics I just pointed out, it was all because of Chris Christie!!!11!”

Keep it up Morris, go ahead and blame Christie all you want. I would much rather the republicans battling with each other over “purity” than recognizing and addressing the demographic hole they are in.